An article by: Editorial board

The U.S. presidential election next November 5 will potentially involve 260 million voters. But the electoral mechanism is complex; citizens choosing the candidate actually vote for those who will be the Electors, who then in December will make the result official by voting for the president. In almost all states the Electors are chosen by pure majoritarianism, which is why, often, ending up in the Oval Office of the White House is not the candidate for whom the majority of American voters voted. This is what happened to Hillary Clinton when she was defeated by Donald Trump.

The election is divided into two phases: on November 5, the 260 million eligible voters will be called to the polls, after which the so-called Electoral College vote will be on December 17

The US election race is coming to an end, and tensions are rising. After two failed assassination attempts, Republican nominee Donald Trump has asked for an ultra-secure military jet to fly him, fearing drone and missile attacks by Iranian terrorists. As Trump himself wrote in his Truth Social network, Iran wants him dead to allow the election of Democratic nominee Kamala Harris, who is desired by the Islamic Republic’s leadership for the US presidency.

The voting procedure in the United States is quite complex, convoluted, and significantly different from the processes of direct expression of voters’ will in other countries.

So, on Tuesday, November 5, the United States will hold its 60th presidential election. It will take place in two phases. In the first phase (November 5), there will be a nationwide election with about 260 million people, namely all US citizens over the age of 18.

The date of Election Day is not chosen at random: voting takes place on the Tuesday immediately following the first Monday of November. This choice represents a tradition in the US electoral system. In many states, however, elections also start several weeks earlier: this is explained by the desire to allow even those who are absent on that specific day to be able to express their preference, including by mail.

In US presidential elections, “all US citizens who are 18 years of age or older” may vote. Exceptions, however, are citizens residing in the District of Columbia and the unincorporated territories of the US, which include Guam, Puerto Rico, the Northern Mariana Islands, and the US Virgin Islands. Prior to 1971, it was only possible to vote from the age of 21. In 35 states it is necessary, when voting in person, to show an individual state-accepted form of ID at the polls. Such states include Kansas, Indiana, Tennessee, Missouri, and Georgia. Sometimes, but not always, other original documentation showing residency and sometimes casting a provisional ballot can be produced.

Meanwhile, on October 10, the US Supreme Court struck down the law passed in Texas and Wisconsin that required voters to show photo ID at polling places. The decision means voters in Wisconsin and Texas “will not have to show ID to vote in the November election.” These states, as well as several others, have argued that these laws are necessary to prevent election fraud.

American voters can vote either at the polls or by mail, and in both cases, it is acceptable to do so in advance. And for a good reason, Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump, motivating his refusal to have a second televised debate with Democratic candidate Kamala Harris, emphasized that “the election is already underway.”

The names of the candidate and his/her vice president (the so-called ticket) appear on the ballot. However, the vote given by the people to the tickets is assigned to the so-called Grand Electors. That is to say, the election of the president of the United States is indirect. Citizens elect electors under a majoritarian system. The number of electors allocated to each state is proportional to its population.

After the November 5 vote, ballots will be counted by 3143 local election commissions.

The Electoral College, composed of 538 electors, votes for the two offices (president and vice president) by an absolute majority. To win, a US presidential candidate must get at least 270 votes of the electors of the College.

The second major stage of the US presidential election will be the voting of the so-called electoral college that consists of 538 people who represent each of the 50 states, as well as the District of Columbia. Each of the states is assigned a certain number of electors, which takes into account the population and is also equivalent to each state’s representation in both Houses of Congress.

As a rule, electors are members of the Democratic and Republican parties: leading politicians, famous cultural figures, journalists of the leading media, scientists, businessmen. Lists of potential electors are approved by each state’s leadership well in advance of the national ballot.

After the electoral college vote, the candidate who manages to get the support of at least 270 electors becomes president of the United States.

Of course, it may happen that none of the candidates manages to achieve this result. In this case, the US Constitution provides for a voting procedure in the House of Representatives, in which the future head of the country needs to secure the support of at least 26 of the 50 state representatives. It is for this reason that US election laws prohibit Congressmen in both houses, as well as those holding public office, from being members of the electoral college.

Winning national elections in the United States does not mean becoming the president of the country. It happened in 2016 with Hillary Clinton.

As a reminder, in the 2024 presidential election, the electoral vote is supposed to be held more than a month after voting at the polls, namely on December 17. The results of that vote will be passed to Washington, DC, where members of US Congress will meet on January 6 for the final vote count. The results of the Electoral College vote will be confirmed by the President of the Senate, who is also the incumbent Vice President, that is, the Democratic nominee Kamala Harris.

The archaic electoral system of the United States (it has remained unchanged since independence from Great Britain) may not reflect the will of the entire American people: this means that even a candidate who gets fewer votes than his opponent can win an election. This is because in 48 of the 50 states, the final vote is cast by members of the Electoral College on a winer-take-all basis. California, for example, has 54 members of the Electoral College. If Kamala Harris gets at least one more popular vote than Donald Trump in that state, all 54 electoral votes will go to her. The exceptions are Maine (4 electors in the Electoral College) and Nebraska (5 electors): here, the winner is entitled to two guaranteed votes, and the rest goes to whoever gets the most in each of those states’ electoral districts.

So, getting the most popular votes nationwide in the November 5 polls does not mean becoming president of the country. Usually in this regard, political observers like to cite the example of Hillary Clinton, who beat Donald Trump in the 2016 nationwide public vote by almost 2.9 million votes, but never became president. Trump was supported by 304 members of the Electoral College, while only 227 members of the Electoral College voted for Clinton.

Incidentally, in 29 of the 50 states and the District of Columbia, College electors are not bound to vote for the candidate with whom they are affiliated. Thus, there is always the possibility of “free riders.”

A lot, if not everything, depends on the vote in the few American states, called “swing,” or “purple.”

That’s why all the attention of the contenders and their staffs is now focused on the swing states. Currently, the swing states in the USA are those where the Democratic and Republican parties enjoy roughly equal support, and the gap between candidates is generally minimal. They are also sometimes referred to as “undecided” or even “purple,” after the color that results from mixing blue (Democrats) and red (Republicans).

The number of these swing states is not constant: in the 2020 presidential election, the list included 14 states, and today, US experts have counted 7 states with 94 electors among the swing states: Arizona (11), Georgia (16), Michigan (16), Nevada (6), Pennsylvania (20), North Carolina (15), and Wisconsin (10). Experts say winning them could be crucial for either candidate. But there are those who believe that there are not 7 but 12 such states today, with a total of 148 electors.

According to American experts, 17 states (210 electoral votes) can be confidently named “democratic” today. These are: California (55), Colorado (9), Connecticut (7), Delaware (3), Hawaii (4), Illinois (20), Maine (4), Maryland (10), Massachusetts (11), New Jersey (14), New Mexico (5), New York (29), Oregon (7), Rhode Island (4), Vermont (3), Virginia (13), Washington (12), and the District of Columbia (3).

The Republican Party is backed by 21 states with 177 electoral votes. These are: Alabama (9), Alaska (3), Arkansas (6), Idaho (4), Indiana (11), Kansas (6), Kentucky (8), Louisiana (8), Mississippi (6), Missouri (10), Montana (3), North Dakota (3), Ohio (18), Oklahoma (7), South Carolina (9), South Dakota (3), Tennessee (11), Texas (38), Utah (6), West Virginia (5), and Wyoming (3). That means that in order to defeat Kamala Harris, Trump needs to win the support of 92 electors in swing states.

There is a special procedure if neither of the two candidates for the US presidency can gather the necessary 270 votes of the Grand Electors

Each candidate, in the specific case of the 2024 US election being Donald Trump and Kamala Harris, thus needs 270 electoral votes to be elected president. In history, it has happened very rarely that a scenario occurs in which neither candidate reaches this number or there is even a tie.

In this case, it is necessary to proceed in another way. If no candidate reaches a majority of the electoral votes, the president and vice president are chosen according to the dictates of the Twelfth Amendment. The president is chosen by the House of Representatives from among the three candidates who received the most votes, but in this ballot voting is by states: representatives from the same state collectively have only one vote. A second ballot to choose the vice president is held in the Senate, with each senator having one vote.

After the Great Voters have voted, the inauguration of the new president and his vice president will not take place until January 2025. Congress is convened in the full House on January 6 to ratify the results and proclaim the president’s appointment.

The term of office of the president of the United States lasts 4 years and formally begins on January 20 following election day. The 60th Presidential Inauguration will take place on Monday, January 20, 2025 in Washington, D.C. The ceremony will be held on the west front of the US Capitol. The Joint Congressional Committee on Inaugural Ceremonies (JCCIC) is responsible for planning and carrying out the ceremony.

The US president can be re-elected only once, so for a total of two terms. In the event of the president’s death or resignation, his or her vice president is responsible for finishing the term. Once the term is over, the US president does not become a senator, as is the case, for example, in Italy.

Giornalisti e Redattori di Pluralia

Editorial board