The USA elections are approaching, and the star-spangled mediators are pushing for a truce in the Middle East. Meanwhile, Jerusalem keeps in check the war potential of Tehran, which has to decide whether and how to respond to recent attacks
Israeli attack blocked Iran’s military capabilities
The deadlock situation following Israel’s response last week to the Iranian missile attack, which brought some 200 ballistic missiles into the Jewish country on October 1, coincides with two important phases of the conflict. On the one hand, the US presidential election is approaching; on the other, the results of what the Israeli army has defined as a “targeted attack” on Iranian defensive and offensive infrastructure are being tallied.
When Tehran launched missiles at Israel on October 1, some also hit homes, schools, and businesses, while causing minimal damage to two military bases. On Saturday, October 26, Jerusalem decided to make a different choice: to strike Iran’s missile production and defense center. After weeks of speculation over the targets and tug-of-war with the US ally over the possibility of striking nuclear infrastructure and oil refineries, followed by a threat from Iran to attack Gulf targets, the decision was made to choose another target, also under US pressure. A decision that had two immediate and strategic implications: on the one hand, Iran’s missile warfare capabilities were blocked and will take about a year to return to where they were before the attack; on the other hand, it gives Tehran the opportunity to evade a response, given the reduction in military capabilities, which may be masked by the intention to take no action to reduce tensions despite various statements.
US mediators are in the Middle East to at least secure a ceasefire between Israel and Iran’s minions
The approaching US election is forcing Iran, on the one hand, to threaten a quick response, even before the US vote, CNN reports; on the other hand, star-spangled mediators have arrived in the Middle East to ensure at least a ceasefire between Israel and Iran’s henchmen (Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza), which then also leads to ending hostility with Tehran.
This standoff provides an opportunity to examine satellite imagery to understand the damage the Israeli attack caused to the affected sites. One of them is a factory in the industrial district of Shamshabad, Tehran province, where parts for drones are manufactured. The other target looks like a base south of Tehran, where there are batteries of Hawk missiles for air defense, as well as batteries of S-300s, Russian-made anti-aircraft systems.
The Israeli raids targeted the production and launching of drones, the same ones that Hezbollah has used to attack the Jewish state (not least the ones that hit Prime Minister Netanyahu’s home in Caesarea last week), as well as the production and launching of ballistic missiles. In particular, a drone factory 300 kilometers east of Tehran, where the drones that the Russians are using as part of the war in Ukraine are also likely to be manufactured, has been hit.
The destruction of four S-300 anti-aircraft batteries is a major Israeli achievement. It will not be easy for Tehran to put back in place a system that is crucial in the event of an air attack. To replace them, Iran will have to get supplies from Russia, at a difficult time for Moscow. Otherwise, it will have to turn to China, which has created its own based on the Russian S-300 defense system. The results are unknown, but they may also be coming to Iran soon. And it can also count on military assistance from Pakistan and North Korea. The latter, already involved in Ukraine with Russia, has no effective air defense systems, but plenty of weapons.
In Khojir and Parchin, Israel struck warehouses and buildings where fuel and propellant used in ballistic missile engines and launch bases are mixed. A type of chemical that is difficult to find on the market, especially with the ongoing sanctions against Tehran.
Israel, by striking a nerve with the Iranian missile industry, not only slowed (but did not completely eliminate) the possibility of a sharp attack in the short term (which Israel could also have negated with a preemptive attack), but also gathered new information about Iranian facilities (useful for further response) and demonstrated that it had intelligence information about the Ayatollah regime’s strategic facilities. The Jewish country’s army insured itself for the future by letting Tehran know that it had all the information it needed to launch an attack on important targets. In addition to the fact that if Iran attacked now, responding to the Israeli raid on Saturday, it would not have the defenses necessary to suppress a possible response.
From a media perspective, the Iranian establishment cannot allow an Israeli attack to go unnoticed
Obviously, even from a media perspective, the Iranian establishment cannot leave the Israeli attack unnoticed. Hence the statements and threats of retaliation from all political and military leaders. Ayatollah Khamenei said Israel’s attack “should neither be exaggerated nor downplayed,” although he stopped short of calling for reprisals. Everything indicates that Iran is carefully evaluating its response to the attack and looking for a way out. The Iranian military has already said a ceasefire in Gaza or Lebanon trumps any retaliatory strike on Israel, although Iranian officials have also reiterated that they reserve the right to retaliate.
This is clearly about direct attacks from Iranian soil, not taking into account those carried out by the so-called proxies, Tehran’s satellite groups (Hamas from Gaza, Hezbollah from Lebanon, Iraqi and Syrian Shiites, groups from the Palestinian territories, the Houthis from Yemen), which continue to attack Israel. The need for a ceasefire in Gaza, given the resumption of negotiations, seems to be the only solution to the conflict in the area.