Donald Trump's inauguration is expected to be a turning point. European leaders would have preferred Kamala Harris to him, but the people of Europe certainly don't regret Joe Biden, whose choice brought the European economy to its knees and subordinated the European Union to the interests of the NATO bloc. Many believe that Donald Trump's pragmatism may finally lead to a political resolution to the conflict in Ukraine. In addition, his “America First” slogan could be a wake-up call for a politically dormant Europe
The great Irish-American writer Colum McCann wrote a novel, TransAtlantic, that beautifully captures the sense of deep connection between America and Europe. It tells the story of Jack Alcock and Arthur Brown’s first nonstop flight in 1919, as well as the mid-19-century journey through Ireland of black anti-slavery activist Frederick Douglass. The activist finds that the people of this European country are also motivated and determined to fight slavery. The book came to my mind as I began to reflect on how much of European there is in the Washington ceremony at the very beginning of a new American presidency. And not only thanks to the urban planning talent of French architect Pierre L’Enfant, who designed the heart of the American capital. What would the United States be today if not for three Florentines – Amerigo Vespucci, Giovanni da Verrazzano, and Filippo Mazzei? And I bet a lot of congressmen in Washington, DC will be heading to the Flavio restaurant in the coming days for a tiramisu or bruschetta.
Brussels is increasingly becoming the main military seat of NATO and less the political capital of Europe
But not just because of history, cuisine, or culture, not just because of the formulas of the solemn presidential oath on the Bible, the subject of US relations with Europe is such a hot-button issue. On this Trump Inauguration Day, January 20, 2025, the topic of the relationship between the two sides of the Atlantic is key, strategic, crucial. And let’s face it: this is not a good moment in the Atlantic relationship. If the rulers of France, Germany, Poland, Denmark (ah-oh, Greenland!), and the Netherlands could have voted with American voters last November 5, they would have undoubtedly favored Kamala Harris. Trump is really disliked by the elites of the Old Continent. Perhaps the same cannot be said of the peoples inhabiting the countries of Europe. Polls show that most Europeans want an “end to wars” – that is, exactly what Donald Trump has promised and which, for the moment, seems to be successfully implemented in the Middle East. European leaders, those who today are “bruised” like Emmanuel Macron and Olaf Scholz, or those who have just left the scene like Mario Draghi and Boris Johnson, during the Biden administration actually sided decisively with the war in Ukraine, abandoning politics and diplomacy and contradicting the very pacifist and neutral tradition of political Europe. Brussels is increasingly becoming the headquarters of the NATO bloc and less the political and diplomatic capital of Europe. The NATO Secretary General is constantly featured in the media, unlike the head of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen. Trump has always been skeptical of the Atlantic Alliance’s role, often accusing the Europeans of underpaying for their security, which only the USA can guarantee. His vision in implementing the MAGA (Make America Great Again) program is to make Europeans pay for their security out of their own pockets to make America great again. He does not have the neocon obsession also shared by Mike Pompeo of his first term, namely “to wage war around the world in the name of democracy and against autocracies, using NATO.” On the other hand, today’s Europeans have been preparing for this moment for a long time. This is true: France’s Emmanuel Macron has been pushing the idea that Europeans could become directly involved in the Russia-Ukraine conflict with their own soldiers for weeks, taking to extremes the line he has held for three years. It took the pragmatism of Vladimir Zelensky to put an end to Macron’s vague parentheticals and remind Europe that without the USA, “we are nowhere.”
War, often repeated by Pope Francis, who has never been indifferent to the “tormented Ukraine,” is a gamble with no way back
For Europeans, the issue is not so much about being happy with Donald Trump as it is about stopping being jaded and exhausted by the Biden administration. For the US response to Russian claims to Donbass and to the “special military operation” – a real war launched by Russia three years ago – the outgoing US president did choose and wanted to use a bellicose strategy. In fact, if the principle of Ukraine’s independence and autonomy could be shared by all Europeans, the goal was to seek a military counter-offensive (with European money and NATO assistance) aimed at finally defeating Moscow, which is clearly unrealistic and unattainable. War, often repeated by Pope Francis, who has never been indifferent to the “tormented Ukraine,” is an adventure with no way back. Biden chose the worst possible line by unleashing a worldwide arms race.
But above all, the policy of economic sanctions was carried out behind the back and to the detriment of Europe. The undermining of the Nord Stream pipeline was a turning point in recent years, also politically, as our continent had to give up Russian gas. Buying American liquefied natural gas, and not only that, at much higher prices. The collapse of the Russian economy, however, did not happen.
On the contrary, the very high economic costs for Germany, the locomotive of Europe and generally of all EU industry and production, have led to a frightening collapse in a matter of months. The unprecedented crisis at Volkswagen, the great German automaker, reflects this deep economic and strategic crisis. Europe, forced into the war, abandoned relations with the East, stopped abruptly in Kiev, which became the end point, is paying for the war to the very end. And not just in the form of human lives, horror, and destruction.
Then there is also what Pope Francis calls a “prophecy of peace.” Today, Ursula von der Leyen’s Europe seems to be moving toward rearmament, as if the future consists of walls and wars. But in European countries, including France and Germany, there are surely more than a few political parties (and voters) who do not want to forget the peaceful, if not pacifist, tradition of the European dream. When it comes to transatlantic identity, how much of desire for peace there is in the history of our continent! If the war ends, then instead of replenishing arsenals with new weapons, Europe will have to face a new phase of smart economic and industrial infrastructure development.
Italian Central Bank Governor Fabio Panetta (pictured) has just given a key speech on the relationship between peace initiatives and the economy. He did so in the Italian city of Bologna, where he was invited by Archbishop Cardinal Matteo Zuppi, who not coincidentally is also the Pope’s special envoy to Ukraine and Russia. Panetta said: “Peace is not simply the absence of conflict, but the creation of conditions that enable everyone to live a life of dignity, free from fear and poverty. At the same time, prosperity that does not generate overall well-being is ephemeral prosperity that risks generating conflict and instability. As Pope Paul VI once wrote in his encyclical Populorum Progressio (Development of Peoples), ‘…development is a new name for peace.’ Today, these words remind us of the urgent need to work towards a more just and peaceful future prosperity.”
That is why the US decision to turn the page, badly experienced by many leaders in their palaces, is being received by Europeans in their homes and apartments with some hope, often unacknowledged. Mostly because of what Donald Trump is not, rather what he represents. Some sociologists may recall here the now popular text by American psychologist Jonathan Haidt, The Anxious Generation, which describes the suffering of young people in an era of explosive social media development. The anxiety of Europeans, including adults, is that the democratic institutions in which they have always enthusiastically participated no longer take their aspirations and desires into account and are governed from the top down by the establishment increasingly locked into its own motives. The European ruling elite is entrenched in Brussels, which has turned into a little fort of unbreakable legal and economic rules, governed by a parasitic bureaucracy and at the same time determined by the interests of the strongest. It’s a sense of fear that offers hope for a change in US strategy. And change, as we know, brings hope for the future.
“The paradox” of Donald Trump (a term used by the New York Times, not a maddened sovereignty advocate, on the occasion of the Gaza truce) is that while disapproving his conservative ideological line, it is his pragmatism that is appreciated, which aims, on the basis of national interest, to interrupt the incessant US interventionism in the world, on the one hand, and to bring closure to current conflicts, on the other. While Joe Biden, particularly through NATO, has replaced European politics by creating a sense that the political choices of European countries now don’t matter at all, Donald Trump is raising the challenges of the future to the European throne for a number of reasons, not all of which are noble. At least that’s what it looks like in his first steps and in his first promises made right after his unbelievable election victory. Europe must move, find itself as a protagonist, develop policies, and become generative again. Perhaps today is inauguration day for the Old Continent as well.