Syria: Unknown Islamism and People Deserving Peace

It is too early to know what will become of Syria. After more than fifty years of the Assad regime, more than twenty years of Bashar’s “rule,” and 14 years of civil war, the country seems to be changing course. Where to? It’s hard to say. Mostly because of the complexity and diversity of actors in this field. The first and foremost is Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the group that in some ways led the victorious takeover of the country and the fall of Assad with his subsequent flight.

The jihadist organization led by Ahmed al-Sharaa, better known as Abu Mohammed al-Golani, is considered a terrorist organization by the UN, the USA, and other countries, including Turkey. This issue should be taken into account for two reasons: first, if it has to be dealt with, its terrorist overtones will certainly pose a problem; the second concerns relations with Turkey. Yes, because if Ankara had not officially given the green light to the offensive, which in just more than ten days – from the border region of Idlib, to the capture of Aleppo, then Hama, Homs, and finally Damascus – brought about a historic change in Syria, it had not impeded its advance, but on the contrary, actually welcomed it.

The Turkish issue is not a minor one. It is not simply a matter of foreign intervention in Syria, as Russia and Iran have clearly seen for decades. It involves determining control over territories, especially on the border; it is about “solving” the problem of the Kurds, who were also part of the alliance of groups that toppled Assad. But Turkey considers them sworn enemies because they are close to the Kurdistan Workers’ Party, the PKK, which Ankara is fighting against and which wants the destruction of the ethnic group it is talking about.

It should also be remembered that Hayat Tahrir al-Sham is a direct descendant of al-Qaeda and originally also adhered to ISIS’s caliphate theories. In that offensive, in speeches given in Damascus at the capture of the city, and in an interview with CNN, Mohammed al-Golani said he hoped for an inclusive Syria, regardless of the political, ethnic, and religious affiliation of its citizens. Upon arriving in Aleppo, his troops assured Christians that they would not be touched, meanwhile the Russian Air Force bombed the Franciscan School, the Promised Land’s college.

It is difficult to say to what extent these promises, these declarations will get transformed into specific actions. The desire to restore the Caliphate, as it was centuries ago during the Umayyad era, is certainly strong and ingrained if not in the leadership, then in the minds of many militias. After all, there are many international complaints of civil rights violations in their stronghold of Idlib.

For now, al-Golani is sending out messages of peace and cooperation to the extent that he distinguishes the Assad regime from the Syrian bureaucracy, for example, leaving Prime Minister al-Jalali to continue doing his job, also ready to take over the transition.

Then the various souls of the coalition that toppled Assad will have to be dealt with. In fact, if the HTS has such a controversial relationship with Turkey, but from which it clearly supported its advance, the same certainly cannot be said of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) alliance, which brings together Kurdish and Arab militias. The former, represented by the People’s Self-Defense Units (YPG), took control of large areas in northeastern Syria in 2012 (later also with American help) when government forces were withdrawn to fight rebels in the west, while, as mentioned, Turkey considers them enemies to be defeated. The SDF currently controls most of Syria’s territory lying east of the Euphrates, including the Islamic State’s former capital Raqqa and some of the country’s largest oil fields, as well as some territory west of the river. Its forces were fighting a Turkish-backed group known as the Syrian National Army near the city of Manbij. There are many different ones in this group. Turkey has been sending troops to Syria since 2016 to push Kurdish groups and Islamic State away from its borders. A key supporter of the rebels, it eventually formed the Syrian National Army from some factions, which held a stretch of territory along the Syrian-Turkish border with the support of Turkey’s direct military might. When HTS and allied groups advanced on Assad from the northwest last week, the SNA also joined them, fighting government and Kurdish-led forces in the northeast.

In this very fragmented situation, in which different interests operate, in which my ally is the enemy of my other ally, it is difficult to find the right balance. Also, because the leadership is not clear. Some think of a kind of federation in which different groups retain control over their areas of interest. It is a long process that certainly cannot be implemented overnight.

The complexity is then furnished by the catastrophic humanitarian situation (thirteen years of civil war, over 600,000 deaths ravaged the country from the depths), as well as by the economic and military situation. There are still several weapons depots in Syria, including chemical weapons. Had they fallen into the wrong hands, the consequences would have been catastrophic. Russia has two bases in the western part. Iran does not want to lose its influence, even though the strikes that Israel has launched against both its territory and its main militia, Hezbollah, as well as Hamas and others, have not only weakened it but have contributed to the rebel offensive and the fall of Assad.

Israel is watching. At this point, they have strengthened their defenses around Mount Hermon and have also seized some Syrian territory to increase their buffer zone, at this point of no one’s rule. They have also attacked military facilities and warehouses in Syria in recent hours. If the insurgents revive the idea of a Caliphate, how could Israel live with such a close threat?

One thing is certain: the Syrian people deserve peace. This is why Mohammed al-Golani’s words are being honored, hoping that they will come true and that Syria can be reborn as a heterogeneous society. Otherwise, it will only be the beginning of a new conflict.