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Multilateralism and peaceful coexistence. The multipolar world, in which we already live, is the best guarantee of global peaceful coexistence: the priorities of the vast majority of countries are healthcare, education, development, and infrastructure. The United States is weaker, and global data on terrorism and murders is declining, seemingly unaffected by less control from Washington: as countries strive for development and prosperity, they do not know what to do with the 800 US military bases located around the world.
Two megatrends serve global peace: the rise of a multipolar world and the secular decline in violence in human relations
The sign of the future world order is not at all catastrophic, although two important sectors – the media and the military industry – are busy with propaganda of chaos and war, as well as the vision of the planet being on the brink of the Apocalypse. Added to this is the risk of the decline of the American empire in the midst of conflicts provoked, inflated, invented, and fueled by its war machine. However, we will not live on a more unstable and violent planet because there are two powerful forces of progress, two closely related megatrends working for global peace: the rise of a multipolar world in international relations and the secular decline of violence in human relations as a result of the civilization process.
I have been studying these phenomena for several decades now, and I can be glad that my analysis is standing increasingly strong on its feet. Even what may seem, at first glance, to be a refutation of my forecasts, an anti-trend on the way of peace-loving forces – the war in Ukraine between NATO and Russia – in fact accelerates the arrival of a multipolar world that refuses to support the idea of choosing war as a tool for resolving the conflict and as a trigger of a new global fire.
Global peace is not under threat, since the priorities of the vast majority of countries are health, education, development, infrastructure
Following the UN’s unequivocal condemnation of the violation of Ukraine’s sovereignty, almost 90% of member states refused to side with NATO in the anti-Russian crusade. With the exception of NATO members and America’s traditional partners in East Asia, no country has agreed to send military aid to Ukraine or impose sanctions on Russia. I’m talking about countries in Africa, Central and South America, Central and South Asia. Gfoeller and Rundell note with disappointment in Newsweek magazine, “87% of the world’s population refused to follow us” (15/9/2022).
The ongoing war remains a problem limited to three participants: the Atlantic West, Russia, and Ukraine. The rest of the planet stands back and watches, and even US satellite governments have rejected Biden’s pressure to punish Russia.
When almost all the major non-European countries – from Mexico to Indonesia, Pakistan, India, Brazil, South Africa, and even Israel and Saudi Arabia – disassociate themselves from Uncle Sam, it means that there has been some kind of profound change in international relations and that there will be no new Cold War or World War III due to lack of raw materials.
The clash between NATO and Russia will not expand because the prevailing interpretation of the conflict on the planet is a sub-regional problem, similar to others that should be resolved through the usual instruments of ceasefire, negotiations, and a peace agreement. Thus, this war does not give rise to a general arms race. Most countries – according to Global Peace Index 2023 – continue to reduce their military personnel and military spending relative to their GDP. Global peace is not under threat because the priorities of the vast majority of countries remain the same: health, education, development, infrastructure.
These priorities are now consolidated and are the consequence of a civilizational process that undermines confidence in the effectiveness of the military solutions in favor of promoting solidarity and cooperation.
The BRICS GDP now exceeds that of the G7 countries, whose population is only 6% of the world’s population, compared to the BRICS countries’ 41% share
The world has been multipolar for more than thirty years. It wasn’t just Soviet communism that collapsed in 1989. The attempt to once again divide the world into two camps – pro-American liberal democracies versus pro-Chinese and pro-Russian tyrannies – is a political operation doomed to failure. This is also because the balance of power has changed: the USA accounts for only 4.2% of the population and 16% of global GDP, compared to 50% in 1950. At the same time, the GDP of BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) now exceeds that of the G7, whose population is only 6% of the world’s population compared to the 41% share of the BRICS countries. According to the International Monetary Fund’s 2022 data, “advanced and developing” countries now produce 58% of global GDP at purchasing power parity, compared to 30% in the G7 countries.
The development of multipolarity and the decline of the United States leads not to instability, violence, and increased conflict, but to their reduction. This is evidenced by the latest data on terrorism and lethal violence. Domestic and international terrorism is in sharp and constant retreat.
After outbreaks in France and Belgium in 2015, Islamist terror has virtually disappeared from Europe (2 terrorist attacks in 2022) and is collapsing in the rest of the world. According to the 2023 Global Terrorism Index, suicide attacks killed 1,947 people in 2016, compared to just 8 in 2022.
The region with the most rapid decline in terrorism is the Middle East. From the decline in confrontations in the Syrian civil war that began in 2015 to the Trump-led beginning of withdrawal of US troops from Iraq and Afghanistan completed by Biden in August 2021, a 70-90% reduction in terrorist attacks in the region is evident. The number of casualties in all types of conflicts has dropped significantly, which is the exact opposite of the catastrophe predicted by those who believed in the Middle East held together by the Pax Americana.
The Global Terrorism Index shows that a year after the Taliban took power in Afghanistan, the number of assassination attempts there fell by 75%. Only 12% of global terrorist attacks today occur in North Africa and the Middle East, down from 57% in 2016.
The epicenter of terrorism has moved from the Middle East to the Sahel zone, where the increase in the number of terrorist attacks and coups d’état is linked, among other things, to dissatisfaction with the neocolonial policies pursued by France.
Even everyday violence, the total number of murders, including mass murders, continues to decline. From 2008 to 2023, the global homicide rate decreased by 17.1%, from 7.6 to 6.3 per 100,000 inhabitants. In 2023, homicide rates decreased in 104 countries, while increases were reported in 42 countries. But for the media, only this last category exists, as if the planet consists only of Mexico or Ecuador.
A multipolar planet does not need a global security guard
The decline of terrorism and conflict in the world’s most troubled regions, the decline in violence against human beings, and the rise of multipolarity are ignored by the dominant media narrative. This reality risks overshadowing the inconvenient reality that the main threat to global security today comes from the United States and its impressive military machine. The USA has not come to terms with the idea of losing its hegemony on the planet, of becoming just one of the 6-7 poles that structure the current world, where multilateral relationships have now become the rule. You can be friends with China, and with the USA, and with Russia, and with Brazil, without being forced into indissoluble monogamous unions.
A multipolar planet does not need a global security guard. Most countries are caught up in the race for development and prosperity and no longer know what to do with the 800 US military bases located in the four corners of the planet. The last thing on the minds of 90% of Earth’s citizens is being drawn into a military alliance that forces them to fight against a foreign enemy, perhaps thousands of kilometers away from where they themselves live.
