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Washington, New Delhi, and Beijing have the largest economies and the largest armies in the world. And they are far more interconnected than they would like everyone to believe. What will change in relations with China and India with the arrival of Donald
Trump and Modi can only benefit from each other, China has its own foreign and economic policy that abstracts from everything else
A triangulation designed to outline the economy, politics, and other international spheres in which the USA, India, and China are involved as the top three spots since Donald Trump’s return to the White House.
A triangulation that moves in all directions from one point to another because, in the end, the three countries are far more interconnected than declarations, alliances, positions, and policies on various topics would suggest.
Given the fact that India, the USA, and China represent the largest economic and military powers in the world, they hold the fate of the globe in their hands militarily, economically, and environmentally, which also affects the exploitation of resources, new technologies, and the everyday lives of those living in Kathmandu, Pretoria, Los Angeles, or Canberra.
In short, a triangle destined to have a significant impact on the future lives of all of us who also depend, directly or indirectly, on the choices of each of those occupying the upper spots.
One of the first people to call Donald Trump to congratulate him on his election victory was, of course, Narendra Modi. The New Delhi ruler has been associated with a strong White House personality for years. The same view on migrants, but above all an alliance (even if views differ slightly on this issue) in an anti-China vein, makes the two presidents a cohesive pair.
Trump and Modi can benefit from each other. For decades, India has been gaining recognition as a viable alternative to the former factory of the world, China, where the unsustainable development of the past years and especially the rigid and stifling leadership has caused prices to rise, which also makes local life difficult for international companies that in the past also had an important presence in the Middle Kingdom.
India has also grown, but at a slower pace and, in a much broader and fuzzier sense of the word, “sustainably.” Often in an anti-Chinese way.
Of course, if Trump goes ahead with his announced plan to impose tariffs, India will also have to suffer. But it hopes to fit into a small circle of countries that could benefit from it. After all, New Delhi has already tapped a line of credit for military supplies from Moscow, of which it is an ally. In fact, it did not participate in the sanctions demanded by Biden.
India, since its foundation, has stood out for its non-alignment: for this reason, instead of an alliance, it could be thought of as a partnership with the Americans that benefits all. New Delhi also hopes that Trump can put its historic foe, Pakistan, in its place, particularly from a counter-terrorism perspective. Moreover, India’s presence in BRICS is fundamental to Trump because it offers him a defense, a bridge to distant or even hostile countries. Think about relations with Iran.
China is a real bet. Xi Jinping, those who came before him, and those who will follow him care little about who sits in the Oval Office on Pennsylvania Avenue in Washington, DC. China has its own foreign and economic policy, independent of everything else. Indeed, it has always occupied the places left behind or ignored by Western countries. Just think of China’s presence in Africa from where it extracts resources, especially mineral resources. Or about positions taken in the Middle East or even by Americans’ neighbors. Yes, because the Chinese have been doing a strong job of supporting the Bahamian archipelago for years, where in exchange for infrastructure (roads, hotels, buildings, sports arenas and stadiums, even a casino) it got fishing licenses and secured the closest place to the US coastline from which to listen and watch. And it has done it under all American administrations.
Not much will change on the eastern front… duties have contraindications for everyone
Duties on the Chinese mean shooting oneself in the foot. At this point, the US economy and its supply chain are not fully structured to compensate for the lack of components coming from the Middle Kingdom. Of course, Taiwan is of fundamental importance from a technological standpoint, but Chinese military maneuvers in the Strait and its possible occupation are unlikely to bring the Americans into direct confrontation with Beijing. After all, let’s not forget that in addition to a mighty military, the Chinese hold the bulk of the US debt. If Beijing decides to get rid of it, the US economy will collapse. And Trump, despite his protectionist statements, knows this well.
Not to mention the different environmental views associated with the exploitation of fossil resources. Trump, like Modi, is a standard-bearer for fossil fuel use, while the bulk of the technology and tools that provide alternative energy to fossil fuels come from China. We will also need to discuss and clarify various positions on this issue. Of course, the new White House master doesn’t want to do injustice to his friend and supporter Elon Musk on the electric car front, so he will do everything he can to limit imports of these cars from China. But it’s inconceivable that Tesla alone can meet the demand for these cars in the USA.
After all, trade and tariff conflicts have already been seen in the past Trump administration with both India and China, and this has not created excessive friction, problems, or breaks in relations.
Thus, essentially little will change on the eastern front. Trump will impose duties, but he will have to pay the duties domestically and suffer economic retribution from Beijing. It’s hard to say how sustainable all of this is and will be able to continue. What is certain is that only the nationalist political theories of the leaders of the three countries are winning in this tug-of-war.
