Viktor Orbán, White Raven as EU President

Hungary’s six-month rotating presidency of the European Union came at the most inconvenient moment for Brussels. As expected, a relatively stable majority in the European Parliament was secured for the constitution of the new European Commission and other bodies of the European Union, but the results of those elections showed that the extremely unfavorable trend for the Brussels euro bureaucracy continues. Sovereigntist forces are getting stronger, appearing as more significant political actors even in member states where they were almost non-existent (that is, where they represented peripheral or marginal political groups). The rating of Donald Trump has increased further, if he secures a second term in the upcoming presidential elections, a thousand and one questions related to the relations between the USA and the EU will be opened. In Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelenskiy’s rating has fallen further (probably to a historic low). The question whether the existing political set in Kiev can be kept in the saddle since money, weapons, people and political initiatives are missing, remains open. So, things are going in a bad direction for the EU. Two key members, France and Germany, are facing numerous internal problems, the governments in Paris and Berlin have a deficit of legitimacy and this can no longer be hidden by propaganda campaigns and the cruel exploitation of media resources. Italy is sliding towards a new round of economic crisis, so Giorgia Meloni went on a five-day visit to Beijing in order to renew discussions on previously signed memoranda and agreements, even though a few months ago she announced that Italy does not count on the BRI and therefore also does not count on the implementation of those same memoranda and agreements. The Israeli-Palestinian conflict is not only not abating, but there are hints of further escalations in the Middle East, which is a nightmare for the Old Continent both from the point of view of the economy (energy prices can skyrocket, which is tantamount to disaster for the failing European economy) and from the point of view of geopolitics (for another war in the immediate neighborhood, and into which Europe would have to be drawn even unwillingly or indirectly, European countries have neither political nor military resources).

Last but not least, the scandalous opening of the Olympic Games in Paris was an essential indicator of how polarized Europe really is today. The elites are alienated from the common people, they see the purpose of their own actions in the constant imposition of neoliberal ideological values and cultural patterns based on extreme anti-Christian secularism on the majority of the people who do not want such a thing. For the majority of ordinary people in Europe, it is unquestionable that European culture is based on the Christian tradition.

The Hungarian presidency came on top of all that. That is, Viktor Orbán came to Brussels. Euro bureaucracy and EU elites have had numerous disagreements with Orbán before, and even fierce political clashes. Unlike some other leaders of European countries who offer more or less resistance to Brussels on certain issues, Orbán has invested a lot in rounding off the ideological discourse. In a way, he can be called the leader of European conservatism among politicians. The neoliberals from the euro bureaucracy will never forgive him for that. The goals of neoliberals are related to de-sovereignization and de-humanization, they are focused on the disintegration of states, the dissolution of societies and the destruction of traditions. Orbán not only resists it, but has also constructed an antithesis. His comments that the opening of the Olympic Games in Paris represented the “moral emptiness of the West” and the “absence of public morality” resonated in Europe. In addition, the Hungarian Prime Minister is a sharp critic of the EU’s foreign and security policy, especially when it comes to the attitude towards the Ukrainian crisis. Wanting to emphasize this, shortly after assuming the presidency, he visited Kiev, Moscow and Beijing, but also spoke with Donald Trump.

For sure, the combination of all these events had the effect of not welcoming Orbán in Brussels. On the one hand, due to growing concerns within the EU, Orbán’s actions are seen as absolutely unacceptable and they must sanction him so that he is not allowed room for maneuver to strengthen his influence and open very unpleasant discussions in Brussels. Enraged by Orbán’s behavior, Polish Deputy Foreign Minister Władysław Teofil Bartoszewski even expressed doubts about the necessity of Hungary’s membership in the EU and NATO.

On the other hand, like an ostrich, the EU sticks its head in the sand in front of more and more open questions and the old-new majority in the EU institutions obviously think that the problem will not exist if there is no problem in sight. No Orbán, no problem! Such an opinion is the fruit of ideological blindness. European institutions are full of politicians and bureaucrats, like Ursula von der Leyen, who are typical products of the neoliberal school of political correctness. They are often able to explain how something should be done, but they almost never know why something should be done. This is why Europe fell into this position. Why did Europe start an aggressive anti-Russian policy in 2014? What kind of European interests did Russia threaten? We will not get answers to such questions from politicians of von der Leyen’s caliber, because they don’t have any. The real danger of such an approach is that the situation of 1848 may repeat itself in Europe. At that time also decision makers who knew how to explain how something should be done dominated.

The sanctioning of Orbán takes place through a silent boycott of official Budapest by the EU. Until further notice, only high-ranking officials will participate in the informal meetings of the EU Council. Even before this decision by Ursula von der Leyen, certain members led by Sweden and Lithuania, announced that they would behave in the same way. Communication with the chairman (that is, the presiding country) descends to a lower level until further notice. Until further notice, practically means until the end of Hungary’s mandate. Certainly, this represents a precedent and calls into question the functioning of the EU Council in the next six months. In addition to all the ongoing troubles that are shaking the EU, another one of an institutional nature is looming on the horizon. With consequences that will be greater. Because, after his diplomatic tour, Orbán warned: “The Transatlantic Community has lost its influence on the Global South and has become isolated in the world because of its attitude towards Ukraine.” The transatlantic community has already become a global minority. This can be seen by analyzing the attitude towards Russia. The measures of the transatlantic community or the collective West directed against Moscow are not accepted in the rest of the world. Conversely, actors in the rest of the world have even intensified bilateral relations with Moscow and started joining multilateral platforms in which Russia participates. The escalation of the Ukrainian crisis became a kind of catalyst for the crystallization of attitudes towards the collective West and undoubtedly influenced the organization of the global majority.

This is why we are now witnessing a progressive erosion of American and European influence in a whole range of world macro-regions. It’s like that in Africa, but it’s also like that in Latin America, Southeast Asia, even the Middle East. The constitution of a new global majority that is taking place has far-reaching consequences. It changes the character of globalization, transforms international relations, establishes a completely different balance of forces in planetary frameworks and creates a framework for the growth or decline of military, economic and political power potentials that has not existed before. Underestimating or ignoring this process can only make the aforementioned far-reaching consequences worse. And first of all, for Europe. After all, the transatlantic community is organized hierarchically: American interests go there first, and only then European interests.

Due to its misunderstandings and clashes with Orbán, the EU refuses to accept the common-sense warning of the Hungarian Prime Minister. Therefore, it rejects in advance the initiatives that Budapest was ready to offer in order to see the reality and the steps that can be taken. Therefore, Europe remains aligned with the global minority that will ask less and less about numerous global issues. Therefore, Europe is running towards self-isolation, which will make the already big doubts even bigger. The beginning of Hungary’s presidency made these things bare to the extreme.