War and Patience in West and East

Outside the West, patience prevails as the best way to deal with armed conflict. In The Art of War, the very famous pages, Sun Tzu wrote: “The supreme art of war is to subdue the enemy without fighting.” In Russia, Leo Tolstoy masterfully describes the mystery of Marshal Kutuzov, who only ultimately triumphed. In War and Peace, we read: “The strongest of all warriors are time and patience.” Just as Sun Tzu said thousands of years ago, Kutuzov “directed all his forces not to kill and destroy people, but to save and spare them,” Tolstoy writes. Eventually his patience prevailed; Napoleon led an overwhelming military offensive against Russia, culminating in his entry into Moscow. From victory to victory, his war ended in total defeat. Similarly, the Wehrmacht was consistently victorious in Russia beginning in June 1941, killing millions and inflicting seemingly irreparable losses. Victory after victory, the Nazis were finally utterly defeated. Victory comes with time. Whoever is best equipped on the home front wins.

In short, it has been said: an exhausted enemy, even if only momentarily victorious, is destined to lose; we would now say that resilience, the ability to bear the burden of adversity and start again, general cohesion, physical and ideal stability even in long times of humiliation and starvation are characteristics historically very present in the East. The same, of course, cannot be said for many Western countries, especially today.

Since the 2007-2008 collapse, the Western system has found it difficult to maintain consensus within its borders. The dramatic electoral and existential conflict taking place in the United States is well known; in recent European elections, no-shows have been in the majority; those who say they have won actually have the support of only a minimal and dwindling proportion of the electorate. The deep crisis of the most important countries, France and Germany, is evident. Social disasters are far more serious than political ones, as objectively evidenced by rising inequality and suburban troubles. From Spain to Poland, the share of the far-right is growing, especially among young people, from less than 20% to more than 30%.

For some time now, many citizens have stopped believing in unlimited and universal progress; they believe that their children will be worse off than they are themselves. Inflation has reached levels not seen in decades, and energy prices have devastated the household budgets of the most frugal people. There is growing concern about seemingly undeniable factors, from immigration to natural disasters caused by climate change. Welfare state services are being cut, healthcare first, with great concern about the capacity for adequate care and assistance. Artificial intelligence looms menacingly large: it could eliminate millions of jobs and further impoverish the middle class, while a few billionaires and a narrow group of sated and self-righteous employees celebrate. As Joseph Stiglitz and others have explained, an exceptional time has passed, characterized by generous guarantees, a pervasive situation of well-being, and security. From Kalashnikov guns in Kansas City to Calabrian two barrels rifles, many disaffected people in the West are armed.

Going to the movies for sidetracking is not recommended: Civil War is the most talked about and appreciated film of 2024; there’s an entire program in the title. The Hollywood Reporter reviewed it as follows: “With the precision and length of its violent battle sequences, it’s clear Civil War operates as a clarion call. Garland wrote the film in 2020 as he watched cogs on America’s self-mythologizing exceptionalist machine turn, propelling the nation into a nightmare. With this latest film, he sounds the alarm, wondering less about how a country walks blindly into its own destruction and more about what happens when it does.” Dystopias and science fiction? Contagion also seemed to be that kind of movie, when Steven Soderbergh introduced it in 2011. And then it turned out that it was a preview, an approximation, of the plot for the pandemic that Anthony Fauci said took people by surprise. It all didn’t go too well. Is it really just a matter of time?

Gordon Brown, Mohamed El-Erian, Michael Spence, three of the most experienced international observers, have just published Permacrisis, a book that speaks of the long period of instability and insecurity the world is experiencing. The “perma” prefix suggests a situation that persists for some time and is characterized primarily by a transition to a multipolar context. What emerges is a scenario of multiple and permanent crises that tend to last and merge into synchronized healthcare, energy, climate, and social shocks, with a possible evolution towards global destruction. The weaker countries in the Western coalition may suddenly begin a vertical decline. Then we’ll remember Victor Davis Hanson, because he rightly put the “human factor” at the center of every win and every loss.

Today, these resources go to war, but instead they could be used on the domestic front to build better coexistence and avoid potentially devastating conflicts. The world would be a better place for everyone. But some are unwilling to adapt to the new international reality and have set fires in the most sensitive crisis region.

Ambition, arrogance, and the misery of war are being revived in the West today. Russia and mostly China are armed with patience and prepared for the long term. Centuries of patience and national pride await the final call of fate. On the other hand, some Western strategists despise the humility of patience and think that they have overwhelming financial, technological, and military superiority on their side, so they do not seek peace. They imagine they can quickly degrade the enemy – just as the generals of the Second Grand Army and the generals of the Wehrmacht thought. They claim to be dealing with exotic beggars, inferior in race, means, and civilization. They claim victory is near – and from sanction to sanction, from missile to missile, from victory to victory – they march whistling toward final and global catastrophe.