2024. Economic Growth Instead Of New Crisis

However, estimates for eurozone countries were revised downward

The war between Israel and Hamas has not added pessimism to analysts’ expectations regarding the global economic situation in 2024. Indeed, one after another, experts from major investment banks and institutions are changing their minds and declaring that the specter of a global recession has been defeated and that next year we will all witness truly astonishing growth.

Analysts at Goldman Sachs believe the global economy has all it takes to grow at least 2.6% in 2024, up 0.5% from Bloomberg estimates. The driving force of global growth will be the United States, whose economy is expected to grow 2.1 percent.

“The bulk of the negative consequences associated with tightening monetary policy are now a thing of the past. It will be difficult, if not impossible, for developed countries to decide to cut their base rates in 2024, but inflation will continue to slow in both the G10 and emerging markets,” Goldman Sachs analysts wrote in a recent report, according to which “large economies have managed to free themselves from the specter of recession, and real disposable household incomes will increase due to lower inflation.” In particular, the probability of a recession in the USA currently does not exceed 15% of expert expectations.

The European Commission has also improved its estimates, which so far only apply to the current year. According to European analysts, the global economy will grow by 3.1% in 2023 against the previous estimate of 2.8%. Instead, the forecasts for 2024 were revised downward from 3.1% to 2.9%. In terms of global GDP, the European Commission forecasts growth of 3.5% in 2023, 3.2% in 2024, and 3.5% in 2025.

For the eurozone countries, the forecasts are not so encouraging: “The European economy has lost growth momentum amid galloping inflation, weak demand, and a series of monetary policy tightening,” European Commission experts write. As a result, economic growth forecasts for the eurozone decreased from 0.8% to 0.6% for 2023 and from 1.4% to 1.3% for 2024.