Argentina: Annual Inflation in July Reaches 263.4%

In July, Argentina’s annual inflation rate fell by 8.1% compared to the situation in the previous month. The trend is encouraging, although the real situation remains very tense. According to data released Thursday, August 15, by Argentina’s National Institute of Statistics (INDEC), the inflation rate in July was 263.4%, compared to the 271.5% recorded in June. On a monthly basis, inflation was 4% last month, down 0.6% from 4.6% in June.

Meanwhile, the UN Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) has again revised its estimates of Argentina’s economic prospects for 2024 downward, from -3.1% estimated in May to most dizzying -3.6%. A further minus 4 percent decline is expected in 2025, according to the report “Poor Investment Performance, Low Labor Productivity and Limited Fiscal Space Keep Latin America and the Caribbean in a Trap of Low Economic Growth.” The United Nations estimate is in line with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) value of -3.5%, as well as the World Bank.

As for Latin America and the Caribbean as a whole, ECLAC forecasts a modest growth of 1.8% at the end of 2024, up from 2.1% in the previous report. As the UN analysts write, “the region remains stuck in a trap of low growth accompanied by poor investment performance and low labor productivity, which is compounded by limited domestic space for implementing macroeconomic policies for a reactivation as well as global uncertainty.” The report emphasizes “high inflation and interest rates, which remain high around the world. An already very difficult situation,” ECLAC experts emphasized, “could be exacerbated by further aggravation of geopolitical and trade tensions, as well as by the worsening effects of climate change.”