The eurozone banking sector is resilient enough to withstand a severe economic downturn.
This is the result of a stress test conducted by the EBA (European Banking Authority) based on an audit involving 98 banks in the euro area (57 large and 41 medium), under the direct control of the ECB and representing 80% of the total assets of the eurozone banking sector.
The exercise simulated three years of severe economic stress, and this scenario lowers the CET1 (Common Equity Tier 1) ratio of ECB-supervised banks by 4.8 percentage points to 10.4%. In the stress test, Italian lenders were the most resilient with the CET1 ratio of 17.99% in 2025 in the base scenario and 11.48% in the unfavorable scenario, characterized by high inflation, and high rates, and falling GDP. On the other hand, German banks registered CET1 at 9.59% under adverse conditions and French banks result was 9.15%.
“It is important to note that the stress test showed how the ability of banks to generate interest income under an adverse scenario of rising interest rates is critically dependent on their business model and their respective asset and liability mix,” the ECB said in a note. For example, banks that provide most of their loans at floating rates benefit more from higher interest rates than those that lend mostly at fixed rates. Therefore, the ECB is now urging banks to pay particular attention to how they manage the interest rate risk.”
It should be noted that capital erosion was stronger in small banks than in large institutions (6.6 percentage points vs. 4.6 percentage points).