EBRD Revises Upward Economic Growth Estimate for Russia

By 2050 Russia will produce at least 540 million tons of oil per year

Pavel Sorokin

Western sanctions are hurting Russia’s economic situation, which continues to grow despite everything. The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) has revised its forecast for Russia’s gross domestic product (GDP) in 2024 from 2.5% (May 2024 estimate) to 3.6%: “Russia’s economic growth is projected to slow to 3.6 per cent in 2024 and 1.5 per cent in 2025” EBRD wrote.

According to European Bank analysts, Russia’s economic growth “accelerated from 3.6 per cent in 2023 to 4.7 per cent in the first half of 2024, mainly due to higher oil prices on international markets” and “due to the development of strong trade with non-sanctioning economies.”

In this context, Russia has said it will produce 540 million tons of oil annually until 2050, but could also increase production “taking into account market needs.” Pavel Sorokin (pictured), Russia’s First Deputy Energy Minister, said at the Russian Energy Week currently underway in Moscow that “540 million tons is actually the base scenario that we have set, taking into account the interaction with our OPEC+ partners, but also with regard to market needs,” Sorokin stressed.

On Thursday, September 26, crude oil prices in international markets recorded a new decline, with Brent down 1.51%, falling to $71.95 per barrel, and Texas Intermediate WTI Crude losing 1.45%, falling to $68.24 per barrel.