Energy Optimism in China Stabilizes Oil Prices

Russia has attained from OPEC+ an increase in oil production, which in 2024 will grow from 9.828 million barrels to 9.949 million barrels per day.

This week, oil markets received good news from China: Beijing is liberalizing its monetary policy and is once again raising crude oil import quotas for refineries, which suggests that demand for hydrocarbons in China will continue to grow.

According to Michael Kern, columnist for the authoritative portal, “For the first time after weeks of uncertainty, news from China has kept oil prices afloat.” The timing of the news from Beijing was perfect, after the Fed suggested a further interest rate increase, and the White House announced the need to increase the reserves of strategic hydrocarbons in the US. The issuance by the Chinese authorities of additional quotas for crude oil imports, as well as the decision to “liberalize Beijing’s monetary policy,” should give a boost to the development of Chinese refineries with the subsequent increase in demand, which oil producers have been longing.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) believes that it is India, and not China, that can become the main driver of oil demand growth in the coming years. According to IEA experts, by 2027 India will overtake China as the largest oil consumer and will boost global demand for oil. At the same time, in 2023-2028, 75% of the future global growth in crude oil consumption will come from Asian countries.

China gives momentum to procurement by announcing new import quotas. The Beijing authorities gave a new momentum to the purchase of private refineries in China, having decided to issue a third batch of oil import quotas in 2023 with a total volume of 62.28 million tons, bringing this year’s total to 194.1 million tons, which is 20% more than the corresponding period in 2022.

Kurdish producers are counting losses day by day. As Iraqi and Turkish negotiators prepare to resume technical negotiations aimed at restarting crude oil exports from Turkey’s Mediterranean port of Ceyhan, an 80-day cargo freeze has already cost the Kurdish authorities more than $2 billion.

The US has set a goal of pumping another 12 million barrels of oil into its strategic reserves. Currently, the US strategic reserves are at their lowest level since 1983, and the White House has announced plans to purchase at least 12 million barrels before the end of this year. This means that between October and December 2023, the US will need to purchase at least six million barrels of crude oil.

Finally, writes, Russia has attained from OPEC+ an increase in daily oil production that in 2024 will grow from 9.828 million barrels per day, which was initially  decided at the last OPEC+ summit in Vienna, to 9.949 million barrels per day.