EU: Italy GDP +0.7%, Spain Surprises, Germany Negative

Italy’s GDP in 2023 increased by 0.7%; in 2022, the figure was +3.7%. Thus, the result was slightly lower than the previous expected growth estimate of 0.8%. This was reported by the National Institute of Statistics (ISTAT), which also estimates GDP growth in the last quarter at 0.2% compared to the previous quarter and 0.5% in trend terms.

“In the fourth quarter of 2023, the Italian economy grew by 0.2% compared to the previous quarter and by 0.5% compared to the fourth quarter of 2022. This preliminary result follows a slight increase in the third quarter (+0.1%) and defines growth of 0.7% in 2023 in real terms, adjusted for calendar and seasonal effects,” ISTAT explained in a statement.

Europe is moving at different speeds: Spain performs better than expected and ends 2023 with annualized GDP growth of 2.5% (+0.6% in the last quarter vs. 0.4% in the previous quarter). The Madrid government’s original estimate was 1%. France, like Italy, comes in slightly below the preliminary estimates: GDP is up 0.9% in 2023, not 1% as expected. In 2022, the increase is 2.5%. However, the German data is negative, as expected: GDP fell -0.3% in 2023, the same decline occurred in the last quarter of last year compared to the previous quarter.

Going back to Italy, ISTAT estimates that “the change in Italian GDP in 2024, with zero economic growth during the four quarters of 2024, would be +0.1%.”