Great Britain, July 4 Election: Starmer Is Super Favorite

Britain’s legislative elections will be held on Thursday, July 4. After 14 years of undisputed dominance in British political life, the Conservatives are expected to lose to Keir Starmer’s Labour Party, which is the clear favorite in all polls.

The Labour Party expects a convincing victory and a very large majority to govern, which will put off the radical positions of Jeremy Corbyn, who was soundly defeated in the 2019 election, and return Labour to more reformist positions. According to British media, Starmer is already working on his government team, even though outgoing Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has refused to announce his surrender early, explaining that he has not accepted defeat. Initially it seemed that Sunak would also have to look over his shoulder given the unexpected return of Nigel Farage with his Reform UK, but the scandal surrounding some racist statements seems to have reduced the scope of Farage’s party, which may, however, “disturb” Sunak in some polls.

Opinion polls in recent weeks have almost always shown the same thing: Labour gets about 40% of the vote, the Tories get 20%. Fifty million Britons are eligible to vote: the electoral system is a one-round dry majority with 650 single-member constituencies that distribute the same number of seats, which are obtained by relative majority vote, in the House of Commons, while members of the House of Lords are not elected. Voting takes place in the four countries that make up the United Kingdom: England (543 seats), Scotland (57), Wales (32), and Northern Ireland (18).