IMF Revises Upward GDP Estimate for Russia

Inflation is expected to exceed the CBR's annual target of 4% in 2024

Il 12 aprile 2024 l’economista bulgara, Kristalina Georgieva, è stata confermata come direttrice generale per un secondo mandato di cinque anni

Experts of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) have once again revised upward their forecasts of Russia’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth in 2024, which should reach 3.2 percent.

This is stated in the new edition of the Foundation’s World Economic Outlook report, published on April 16, 2024 (download English-language PDF from Pluralia’s website). Compared to previous estimates, the 2024 estimates were immediately “raised” by 0.6%. The previous report was published in January 2024.

The Fund also improved its forecast for Russia’s GDP growth in 2025 by another 0.7 percent to 1.8 percent.

As for price growth, the International Monetary Fund estimates that inflation in Russia will accelerate from 5.9% in 2023 to 6.9% in 2024. However, the situation should improve next year: in 2025, IMF experts expect a slowdown in price growth, with consumer inflation expected to fall to 4.5 percent.

Finally, according to IMF forecasts, unemployment in Russia should also continue to decline: while the unemployment rate was 3.2% in 2023, the Fund estimates that unemployment in Russia will fall to 3.1% this year and remain at 3.1-3.2% in 2025.