OPEC: Global Economic Growth Forecasts +2.9% in 2024
Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries: the world economy will have to grow also by about 3 percent next year
In 2024, the average oil demand will amount to 104.32 million barrels per day
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) published a monthly bulletin titled “OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report,” in which it wrote that global economic growth should not fall below 2.9% this year and 2.9% again next year. Both forecasts remained unchanged from last month’s estimate. Following strong growth in the USA in the second quarter of 2024, the US economic growth forecast for the second half of the year was revised upward to 2.4%, while the forecast for 2025 remained unchanged at 1.9%.
At the global level, the strong economic performance recorded in the USA in the first half of 2024 was partially offset by the weakening Japanese economy. Japan’s economic growth forecast for 2024 was revised down slightly to +0.2%, while the forecast for 2025 was unchanged at +0.9%.
As for the economic situation in the eurozone, economic growth forecasts remain unchanged for both 2024 and 2025, at +0.7% and +1.2%, respectively. Among countries that are not part of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), China’s economic growth forecasts were confirmed at +4.9% in 2024 and +4.6% in 2025. The forecasts also showed that India’s economic growth rate remained unchanged for both 2024 and 2025 at +6.6% and +6.3% respectively. OPEC also left Brazil’s economic growth forecasts unchanged at 1.8% for 2024 and 1.9% for 2025.
As for Russia’s economic performance, OPEC experts confirmed their previous forecasts of +3.1% in 2024 and another +1.5% in 2025.
OPEC experts estimate that the world’s daily demand for crude oil in 2024 will need to increase year-on-year by 2.11 million bpd to 104.32 million bpd, rather than the 2.25 million bpd expected a month ago. In any case, the expected 2.11 million bpd increase in oil demand would be well above the historical peak demand of 1.4 million bpd, recorded before the covid pandemic. This revision reflects the results of an analysis of oil demand data for the first and partly second quarters of 2024, as well as less optimistic expectations for oil demand growth in China in 2024.
In the most important economic regions, OECD oil demand is expected to increase by about 0.2 million barrels per day in 2024, while daily demand in non-OECD countries is expected to increase by about 1.9 million barrels.
Daily demand for crude oil will decline in 2024
| 1st quarter of 2024 | 2nd quarter of 2024 | 3rd quarter of 2024* | 4th quarter of 2024* |
| 103.15 million bpd | 103.7 million bpd | 104.85 million bpd | 105.57 million bpd |
| (-350,000 bpd) | (-90,000 bpd) | (-50,000 bpd) | (-50,000 bpd) |
*(OPEC estimate)
Source: Pluralia, OPEC data processing
Also, global oil demand for 2025 has been revised down slightly by 65,000 barrels per day, to an average daily level of about 1.8 million barrels (-0.38 million compared to 2024). OPEC experts expect demand from OECD countries to increase by about 0.1 million barrels per day in 2025, while non-OECD demand will drive growth of about 1.7 million barrels per day next year, driven by consumption in China, India, the Middle East, and Asia.
Download the full OPEC report (PDF in English)
