Syria: Phase of Further Uncertainty Opens Up for Middle East

The fall of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad marks a “tectonic shock” to the already shaky strategic balance in the Middle East, while the United States “after years of inaction” may have “little or no influence” on developments in the Middle East. These are the main messages of an editorial published on Monday, December 9, by the US newspaper Wall Street Journal, highlighting the extreme uncertainty of the regional outlook and the risks for neighboring countries.

The UN Security Council will discuss the situation in Syria in a closed session on Monday afternoon at Russia’s request. Earlier it became known that Russia granted political asylum “for humanitarian reasons” to the escaped former Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and his family. Syrian flags were removed from the facades of the Embassy of the Syrian Republic in Moscow and the Consulate General in St. Petersburg. Moscow announced that “an agreement will be reached with the jihadist rebels regarding the security of the Russian air base in Khmeimim and the naval base in Tartus. Nevertheless, in recent days, the Russian fleet based in Tartus has left the moorings of the Syrian port and headed for the waters of the northeastern Mediterranean Sea.

Daniel B. Shapiro, the US assistant deputy defense secretary for the Middle East, said the US military presence will continue in Syria, but “only to ensure the defeat of the Islamic State and will have nothing to do with other aspects of this conflict.”

“We call on all parties involved in the fighting in Syria to protect civilians, especially members of civilian minorities, to respect international military norms, and to work toward a political solution,” Shapiro said.

According to international media, it was Turkey that gained from the regime change in Damascus. Over the years, Ankara has provided political and economic support to the Syrian opposition, which in addition to fighting Assad has also occasionally waged war with Kurdish militias. Millions of Syrian refugees represent a very serious problem for Turkey’s economic situation. International political observers agree that Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan (pictured) is attempting to “form a new government in Damascus in line with Turkish interests and repatriate displaced people, participate in Syria’s reconstruction by gaining access to the country’s vast oil resources from new masters, and use the new balance to further weaken the US-backed Kurds present in northern Syria.”

According to the Wall Street Journal, the next strategic development in Syria “will depend largely on the progress of the transfer of power” and particularly on the extent to which Islamist rebels and numerous other Syrian factions, including the Kurdish and Alawite minorities, can avoid further conflict. “We’re seeing huge changes in the region. Turkey has gotten stronger, Iran and Russia have gotten weaker,” Syrian political analyst Badr Jamous told the Wall Street Journal, adding that “the Syrians will play a bigger role now, not like before.”

Even for Riccardo Redaelli, a professor at the Catholic University of the Sacred Heart in Milan and a political analyst, “for years Syria has been in a state of precarious stability,” supported primarily from the outside: “On the part of Hezbollah militias and Iranian and Russian aid.” The situation has changed in recent years: “Russia has intervened in Ukraine, Iran has weakened, and Hezbollah has been destroyed by Israeli attacks.”

Now in power are the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) rebels, led by Abu Mohammad Al Jolani, who positions himself as a moderate. According to Redaelli, “in the Middle East, many people hold moderate views until they come to power. Al Jolani comes from Al Qaeda, he is a convinced fundamentalist Salafi jihadist who grew up in a culture that denies religious and cultural diversity and has always believed in violence.”

The Assad regime collapsed like a house of cards, causing huge problems for Iran, whose embassy in Damascus was looted immediately after the rebels took power: Tehran has lost its main ally in the so-called “axis of resistance” and a vital land link to the Shiite militant Hezbollah party in Lebanon. It is no coincidence that Israel immediately moved its troops deep into Syria along the Golan Heights and achieved strategic success in dismantling the “axis of resistance” led for years by Iran.

“Even Russia,” writes the Wall Street Journal, “which has long boasted of never abandoning its allies, unlike the United States in Afghanistan or Vietnam, has suffered a defeat that calls into question the future of its air force and navy bases in the Mediterranean.”

It is difficult, almost impossible, to predict what will happen mext: “There are many forces at work in Syria, some still hard to understand, but there are often regional and international players behind them.” According to Redaelli, if they work for the good of Syria and not just for their own interests, then there may be hope for the country. Otherwise, Syria will again fall “into the catastrophe of civil war.”

According to the Wall Street Journal, the shock waves of the Syrian earthquake could eventually also hit the “supporters of the victors,” namely Turkey. “The fragmentation of Syria’s political unity,” the US newspaper said, “could lead to the emergence of a Kurdish entity proto-state with likely US and Israeli support.” Unlike the Syrian National Army militia, which is openly backed by Ankara, HTS jihadist rebels have largely avoided fighting with the Kurds in recent weeks. The group has allowed Kurdish militias to safely evacuate parts of Aleppo and cited the need to protect Syria’s ethnic and religious diversity.

Finally, Gulf monarchies such as Saudi Arabia and Qatar, which “once financed Syrian rebels,” will try to ensure that Assad’s fall “does not trigger a new wave of unrest against the region’s governments and the resurgence of extremist movements such as the Islamic State that emerged after the Arab Spring in 2011.”