Latest polls show candidates tied: that's bad for Kamala Harris
Preparations for the US presidential election on November 5, 2024 are becoming increasingly uncertain, even though many have already had the opportunity to vote (you can learn more about all aspects of the complex US electoral system here).
For weeks, the US media considered this race a done deal: The Democratic National Convention in August and the televised debate between the candidates in September gave Kamala Harris a boost, but now the small advantage she had accumulated seems to have been erased. Even the New York Times/Siena College poll, in which Trump was still trailing by 3 points a few days ago, shows a tie in the latest version, with each candidate getting 48% of the vote.
The New York Times emphasizes that projections made days before the vote rarely reflect such an even division of the electorate and that this would be a disadvantage to the vice president, given that in recent election rounds Democrats have led in popular vote numbers even when they then lost the race for the White House. This is because the members of the Electoral College are elected from state to state under a simple majority system (whoever wins the state takes all the electors forming the College).
Siena College also notes that Trump is leading among male and white voters, in the South and Midwest, while Kamala Harris is favored on the West Coast and Northeast and among non-white voters.