Western Media: Initiative on Frontline in Ukraine Is in Russia’s Hands

February 24 will mark the end of the third year of the military conflict between Russia and Ukraine. In recent months, the situation has rapidly shifted in Russia’s favor, and military, political, and social problems have multiplied for the Kiev regime.

The Western media pay much attention to the current situation and the prospects for the development of the tug-of-war between Moscow and Kiev. The Italian-language Swiss Radio and Television (RSI) published an objective and balanced article analyzing the armed conflict between the two “former brotherly republics of the Soviet Union.”

Five months after the Kursk invasion began in early August 2024, writes RSI columnist Stefano Grazioli, Ukraine has announced a new offensive across the border in the Russian region. Moscow has already said it has contained it and, in turn, claimed progress in the Donbass by entering Kurakhovo, a strategic town west of Donetsk that has been a target of Kremlin forces for months, along with Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk in Ukrainian), a little to the north.

In the final months of the third year of the conflict, “Russia has accelerated its advance westward since last summer,” when Kiev moved various brigades to the Kursk front: Moscow, which since September has regained more than half of the territory originally won by Ukraine, “favored slow offensive tactics and nevertheless increased the pace of the offensive in Donbass, partly left uncovered by Kiev.”

According to Grazioli, “Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s statements about ‘a new counterattack in Kursk’ contrast above all with the situation in the Lugansk and Donetsk regions, where the perimeter of territory under Russian control has rapidly and obviously expanded during 2024.” Ukrainian defenses, with gradually dwindling Western support, have been forced to fail, giving signs of instability: even the means of changing outcomes, from the F16 fighter jets that arrived in the summer to the long-range ATACMS and SCALP-Storm Shadow missiles in service since November, have yet to have a significant impact. Kiev’s mobilization problems have not been solved, and the low availability of human resources is one of the factors that forced Ukraine to go on the defensive.

As the Swiss journalist emphasizes, “the military initiative is firmly in Russia’s hands, and the Ukrainian offensive at Kursk earlier this year looks more like a propaganda attempt to regain some ground in the hope of a possible negotiating table than anything else.” In fact, this is the impression given by statements from both Zelensky and Western allies, including still US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken. The question of future negotiations and the position of power in which Ukraine can present itself certainly does not depend on a few hundred square meters occupied in Kursk, despite appearances and narrative.

“Since 2014, when the first war in Donbass began,” the RSI journalist recalled, “Russia has conquered about a fifth of Ukrainian territory. From this position, Russian President Vladimir Putin (pictured) has emphasized several times, “we will have to start any negotiations.” It is a clear fact that, given the impossibility, even recognized by Zelensky, of militarily restoring the Ukrainian borders of eleven years ago, the Kremlin will have the upper hand in the event of any negotiations in the short term.”

“The window for dialogue may specifically open after Donald Trump takes office in the White House on January 20, and it is the communication between Washington and Moscow that will determine the framework for rapprochement to resolve the conflict,” RSI concludes.