China’s Middle East Strategy on Fire

This is a huge diplomatic success that Beijing has just achieved by managing to get 14 Palestinian factions to agree on a common text. Hamas and Fatah, whose mutual hostility is strong, signed it together. The text refers to “an agreement on post-war governance in Gaza and the establishment of an interim government of national reconciliation.” The 14 factions pledge to establish an independent Palestinian state with Jerusalem as its capital, in accordance with United Nations resolutions. And they also plan to “join forces to end Israel’s genocide in Gaza and resist attempts to displace Palestinians from their land.”

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said: “Reconciliation is an internal issue of the Palestinian factions, but at the same time it cannot be achieved without the support of the international community,” and so China wants to be at the forefront of that very community.

Of course, the odds of this agreement coming to fruition are more than slim. It is hard to imagine on what horizon a Palestinian government, even if unified, can be established and effectively govern the Palestinian territory. The only point of agreement between Netanyahu and his opponents is a rejection of the prospect of a Palestinian state. And despite numerous calls for a ceasefire from the UN, from American President Joe Biden, from Israel’s European allies, it doesn’t seem to be a priority for Benjamin Netanyahu, or rather his priority is to make sure it never happens. Even during the bombings, the Palestinian Authority continues security cooperation with Israel, and seeing Fatah and Hamas sign a common text is an unexpected feat. Benjamin Netanyahu was not wrong. He explicitly rejected the deal, and Israeli Foreign Minister Israel Katz said: “Instead of rejecting terrorism, Mahmoud Abbas supports Hamas murderers and rapists, revealing his true colors.”

Taking a traditionally pro-Palestinian stance, China has developed security and technology ties with Israel. The war in Gaza changed the situation. China realized that for the countries of the Global South, Israel’s connection with the West was a factor in weakening the prestige of the latter. Condemning the double standard toward Russia and toward Israel is a powerful argument for Beijing in its duel with Washington. Western countries, ready to teach lessons of morality and respect for international law to the rest of the world, are trapped in their contradictions, their morality of variable geometry. China is no longer content to be a high-profile power in the Middle East, nor is it satisfied with merely recalling great principles. It got its hands dirty and became an important player. It is no longer a spectator of events over which it has no control, it becomes the lead actor. Its diplomacy is firmly entrenched in the Middle East. Tidying up Palestinian factions was usually the role of Qatar or Egypt. It was not expected that Beijing could play this role. As in the spring of 2023, to everyone’s surprise, China mediated between Iran and Saudi Arabia, who considered themselves existential enemies and on the brink of confrontation. China has become an important partner for the Gulf states, replacing the USA as the main buyer of Saudi oil.

To top it all off, Ukraine’s foreign minister was on a visit to Beijing at the same time as the Palestinian factions were holding talks. And Vladimir Zelensky is very friendly with China, which nevertheless favors a ceasefire in the war between Ukraine and Russia, while putting territorial issues on hold: a proposal opposite to the demands of Kiev, which is unwilling to negotiate until Russia withdraws from territories conquered in 2022 or even 2014. If a European country allowed itself to advocate a ceasefire under these circumstances, it would immediately incur the wrath of Vladimir Zelensky.

How to explain this? Of course, there has been a steady rise in China’s might as it strives to become the world’s leading power. It can’t do it by simply doubling GDP compared to the USA. It also needs to play a broader role in the international arena and thus become a major player that is no longer confined to the Asian region. Chinese diplomacy is evolving globally.

Moreover, its pragmatism, flexibility, and lack of ideological rigidity give it a serious advantage over Western countries.

In the Middle East, the latter refuse any contact with Hamas, accepting only relations with the Palestinian Authority, which has lost all legitimacy in the eyes of the population. Also, the West cannot play any important role on the Palestinian stage, unlike China (and Russia).

Saudi Arabia has decided to no longer be locked in the bilateral standoff with the United States. It is diversifying its partnership, and Beijing is becoming a preferred partner. Washington’s poor relations with Tehran have prevented the United States from playing any role in reconciling the two major Gulf states.

As for Vladimir Zelensky, he realized that Donald Trump’s rise to power would end American aid and that he was interested in diversifying his game. From this perspective, Beijing may have more influence over Vladimir Putin than Western countries that no longer speak to him. The fact that China could somehow play a mediating role (including in conjunction with others) in the central conflict in Europe was unimaginable not long ago, but now seems legitimate, particularly for the protagonists.

Stuck in its ideological biases, the United States and its Western allies are being outmaneuvered on many issues by opportunistic China.