EU vs. Orban: Time for War, Not Peace

There are many ways to end war, but there is only one way to make peace: to have enemies talk to each other directly or through intermediaries. An obvious observation, but overlooked amid the wave of criticism that hit Viktor Orban for his meeting a month ago with President Vladimir Putin, during which he allegedly talked about the conditions for at least achieving a ceasefire. According to several European capitals and according to EU commission leaders, he should not have done so because he is a rotating EU president and contradicts the community’s line of unconditional support for Ukraine, which at this point does not include negotiations with Moscow. In other words, there are no conditions for dialog.

Given the long series of hostile actions towards the EU and the notorious closeness with Russia, also dictated by domestic political reasons, the decision to make this trip to the Kremlin did not need any supporting documents. But Orban met not only with Putin, but also with Ukrainian President Zelensky, Chinese President Xi Jinping, and “President” Donald Trump. There may not be a plan for peace, but it is important that someone takes responsibility for finding a way out, rather than simply repeating the narrative of unconditional support for Ukraine until a victory that will never come.

It’s hard to believe that the leader of a small country like Hungary is so unrealistic as to demand an international audience without holding any cards. It is even trivial to observe that at a time when channels of communication with Moscow have been cut, President Putin is communicating with those he considers friends. And that’s when the remaining opportunities for dialog appear, which is also what President Zelensky, attentive to what goes on behind the scenes of diplomacy and the disastrous attitudes of his generals on the battlefield, was hoping for.

In several interviews, the Hungarian Prime Minister has been very outspoken about the fate of the war in the coming months. The clash could be even more violent, with huge casualties on the Ukrainian side, despite NATO sending weapons, missiles, and airplanes. “That’s why now is the right time to move from the policy of war to the policy of peace,” Orban told German newspaper Bild. “I’m sorry to say this, but Europe has a military policy too,” instead of pursuing a more autonomous policy independent of the USA.

In this context, Orban also emphasizes the very likely next occupant of the White House, a “businessman” and “man of peace” who has been repeating for some time that he can solve the issue with Putin in a few days, without ever specifying how. “I can (…) say with certainty that immediately after his election victory, Trump will not wait for his inauguration but will be ready to act as a peace mediator immediately. He has detailed and well-founded plans to do so.”

Finally, flogging those who demonize Russia’s aggressiveness to its extreme consequences. “No serious person can claim that Russia has any intention of attacking NATO. Attacking NATO is completely impossible not only for Russia,” he says, “but for anyone, because it is the strongest military alliance in the world.”

Orban proposed to include China in the peace conference, calls for the resumption of diplomatic relations with Russia, and will launch an initiative for the Global South, before which “we have lost respect for our position (as Europeans – ed.) because of the war in Ukraine.”

“If Europe wants peace and wants to play a decisive role in resolving the war and stopping the bloodshed, it must now design and implement a change of direction,” Orban’s spokesman explained.

In fact, Hungary is the only EU country capable of negotiating with both sides. There is also Serbia, which is not part of the EU but could play a decisive role given its close relations with China and Russia. It is no coincidence that Mrs. Zelenskaya visited Belgrade, and the Serbian President met with the Ukrainian President several times. But there is more. Following Orban’s trip, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba paid a visit to Beijing, his first since the Russian invasion, to discuss “China’s possible role in achieving a stable and just peace.”

In short, something is moving. Is it possible that the Hungarian Prime Minister was the bearer of messages that would make one imagine a path to peace? In any case, the Hungarian leader’s commitment puts his country in a balanced position compared to the world centers, Washington, Beijing, Moscow, and Brussels. Almost a dress rehearsal for a diplomatic model that perhaps should be a source of inspiration for those countries destined by geography and history to the fate of the middle lands.