France 2024: Macron’s Own Goal

France is experiencing a completely unprecedented situation under the Fifth Republic. For the first time in its history, legislative elections produced neither an absolute majority of lawmakers, nor a relative majority, except for a few elected representatives, as was the case from 1988 to 1993, nor even a smaller relative majority, as has been the case since 2022. This is the first time an interim government has managed “current affairs,” and it will no doubt have to continue to do so for weeks to come. These new developments have confused politicians, worried commentators, and caused certain irritation among the French, who are still accustomed to the efficiency of their political system.

The one man responsible for the turmoil France is experiencing is president Emmanuel Macron. On June 9, the evening of the European elections, without waiting for the official publication of the results, he appeared at the beginning of the election night on television to announce the dissolution of the National Assembly. The amazement was total. Pretty soon his goal became more or less clear. Fearing that a vote of no confidence would lead to the overthrow of Gabriel Attal’s government in autumn, taking note that the center-right Republicans party refused to make an explicit alliance with its elected officials, he preferred to launch an attack. In his view, the National Rally (Rassemblement Nationale) was unprepared for an election contest that would last only three weeks, the Republicans would implode because of their internal divisions, and the leftist parties, which were constantly squabbling, would be unable to unite. Therefore, the centrists could probably get an absolute majority. Instead, barring a small split within the Republicans, the National Rally immediately put itself in fighting order, the leftists concluded an electoral agreement and a unitary program, while the centrists continued to campaign, avoiding the claim to be Emmanuel Macron because of his unpopularity. This selective consistency has awakened the French passion for politics. While the number of abstentions in legislative voting has risen sharply over the decades, this time more than 66% of French people went to the polls.

The verdict of the election is to defeat the President of the Republic. He wanted clarification, but he created incredible confusion. The National Rally has advanced impressively. It won 31.3% of the vote and garnered 7.7 million French votes in the European elections: in the first round of these elections, it won 33%, more than 10.6 million votes. A historical record. It is now present throughout the territory and, beyond its usual base among workers and employees, it has penetrated almost all social categories and all generations. It is opposed only by high income voters, retired people with good pensions, and people with good education levels. But it faces an obstacle: two-thirds of the French have followed instructions from parties calling for the creation of a “republican front” to prevent that party from winning an absolute majority and its president, Jordan Bardella, from becoming prime minister. Marine Le Pen still has a long way ahead if she wants to succeed President Macron one day.

At the end of the second round, no group can claim uncontested success, with an absolute majority set at 289 deputies out of 577. The Republicans lost many deputies, as did the centrists, while the National Rally has 126 elected representatives compared to 88 in 2022, and the left, thanks to the two-round majoritarian voting system, has the most elected officials (193). They immediately declared victory and said they could form a government. However, they are bogged down in endless discussions about the nomination of a candidate for prime minister and the strategy to adopt: do we seek allies, leaving aside some differences in the program, or remain intransigent, which, de facto, makes it impossible to form a government that would be immediately overthrown? This shows the deep divisions that exist between its constituents, particularly between Jean-Luc Melenchon’s left-wing radicals and the Socialist Party, which has improved its results. She had hoped to get at least the presidency of the National Assembly, but a previous outgoing member, belonging to Macron’s party, although very independent of him, was reappointed thanks to an alliance with the Republicans. As for the National Rally, it did not get any important position in the National Assembly, and the other parties agreed to turn it into a ghetto.

France is thus experiencing a zone of turbulence. The outgoing government will take care of business before the Olympics. At this point, it appears that no other executive can be appointed. Especially since the major leaders are obsessed with the upcoming presidential election and are acting almost exclusively in line with this goal. One of the hypotheses would be the formation of a centrist government with the support of the right: this would mean the death of Macronism, which wanted to overcome the antagonism between the left and the right. The left is frustrated and risks another fight. Only the National Rally is in a relatively good position: it can present itself as a victim of the agreement reached between all the other parties to marginalize it. Moreover, 51% of those who voted for it intended to punish Macron. They notice that nothing or almost nothing changes. Frustration, depressed state, and anger are common among them.

There is political immobility and uncertainty, while serious problems are accumulating, such as, for example, the debt (110% of GDP) and the deficit (5.5%), which will affect the content of the finance law, the loss of business competitiveness, the issue of purchasing power, the number one priority for the French, or even security, etc. Finally, President Macron is now weakened in Europe and around the world, as the war in Ukraine continues, and Donald Trump’s victory in the United States looms in November. However, the president’s delegitimization affects not only France, but the entire European Union.