Harris Challenges, Trump Regrets Biden

The change of candidate is working for Democrats in the United States. Kamala Harris, who within hours of Joe Biden’s withdrawal from the presidential race was already racing towards the nomination, has solidified the party’s support and is benefiting from an explosion of enthusiasm among the base. Contradicting earlier doubts about her ability to be an effective candidate against Donald Trump, Harris has quickly caught up to and surpassed the former president in the polls. She is managing to capitalize on interest in a new, younger figure who is considered superior to Trump in terms of character and honesty.

The election is still months away, though, and the challenges for Harris will be many, given her opponent’s popularity among the working class. At first, Trump seemed disoriented by the substitution, losing the discipline he had employed to exploit Joe Biden’s weaknesses on issues such as the economy and foreign policy. He fell back on personal attacks, and his campaign has chosen to characterize Harris as “dangerously liberal.” This is the usual pattern of American party politics, aimed at making one’s opponent appear radical and thus appeal to more moderate voters.

It risks being a failed strategy for Donald Trump. Four years ago, Joe Biden’s campaign focused on the need to “save America’s soul” from the outgoing president’s extremism, referring to the violence and racism of right-wing activist groups and threats to democracy. With this appeal, Biden won by more than 7 million votes, or 4.5 percent, although the margins were narrow in several swing states. In the past year Biden lost considerable support due to his image as a weak and frail old man, so much so that he had to withdraw after the debacle of the June 27 debate. This change gives millions of Americans an opportunity to express their disappointment with Trump again, supporting a candidate who appears to be an acceptable alternative. In the first weeks of her campaign, Harris has indeed worked to present herself to voters primarily on a personal level: no interviews with the press, few details about her policy positions, and much emphasis on a strong character and the right temperament for the office of president. Barring any major missteps by Harris, such as in the debates between the candidates in September, it will be difficult for Trump to prevail in the personality contest.

While the question of the candidates’ emotional appeal to the electorate is important – perhaps more than it should be – the substantive issues should not be forgotten. It is here that Trump could reprise his effective messages from the past. For now, the Republican campaign is focusing on immigration and the cost of living. The first issue tops the list of voters’ concerns, and the Biden-Harris administration does indeed bear some responsibility for the currently dysfunctional system. However, Trump himself made the situation worse by demanding his allies in Congress not cooperate with the White House on a bipartisan solution just months ago. If Harris can provide a concise rebuttal on immigration, she can partially neutralize the effectiveness of the attacks on this issue.

The economy, on the other hand, offers more possibilities. Despite the objectively positive data of recent years, many Americans perceive a crisis due to high food and housing prices. The current administration has limited powers in this area: interest rates, which have driven up mortgages, are set independently by the Federal Reserve, and much of the inflation of recent years was due to problems in international supply chains. However, responsibility always falls on those who govern, so the widespread discontent offers Republicans an important weapon.

On this front as well, Harris and the Democrats can save themselves if they can develop a clear response on the real causes of price increases, and then focus on new measures needed to address the feeling of economic insecurity. For Trump, the smartest tactic would be to emphasize his systemic critique, talking about reviving U.S. industry after the failures of globalization and countering the trade policies that have contributed to the negative transformation of the U.S. economy.

The truth is that the Biden administration has been active on this point, implementing a new industrial policy aimed at building numerous factories in the digital technology sector. It has also focused efforts on the areas most affected by outsourcing of jobs in recent decades. However, the effects of these measures will take time to be felt, while citizens feel the difficulties today. So far, Harris has not shown a clear commitment to continue the anti-free market shift. Thus, there remains an opportunity for Trump to recall his role in combating post-industrial decline and rebuilding the “greatness” of the American economy.

Biden’s withdrawal has changed the presidential race in another important way: support for minor candidates has dropped sharply. Green Party candidate Jill Stein and independent Cornell West have fallen to below one percent in the polls, while Robert F. Kennedy Jr., the strongest third-party candidate in recent years, has lost about half the support he was garnering when the two leading contenders were Trump and Biden.

This drop provides an early indication of the nature of support for RFK Jr. in recent months. It is clear that the rejection of Biden played a significant role, as Harris appears to have benefited from much of Kennedy’s decline. Nevertheless, he remains at about five percent, a considerable achievement for a non-traditional candidate who presents himself as an alternative to the system on several fronts. His most interesting criticisms concern the militarist foreign policy of the United States and the power of large corporations. The Democratic Party-led operation to weaken RFK Jr., that began back in 2023, has proven effective: the press mainly paints him as a conspiracy theorist, emphasizing his no-vax positions, for example. In addition, the lawsuits seeking to keep him off the ballot have made it more difficult for Kennedy to be certified as a candidate in some states, although he still claims he can make the ballot in most places thanks to the signatures collected in recent months.

In mid-July, a phone call was revealed in which Trump tried to convince RFK Jr. to endorse him. With declining support and some negative stories in the media in recent weeks, such as those regarding his treatment of animals, speculation is growing about a possible deal between the two. However, Kennedy insists that he will continue his campaign. The question – for him as well – is whether he will be able to bring attention back to substantive issues, rather than being marginalized by a system that focuses more on superficial ones.