If The Donald Returns to the White House

Seventy-five percent of American voters would like to have a different choice than the one they will face on November 5. A repeat of the Trump-Biden duel doesn’t bother them, and the positions are becoming more and more radically opposed. It is no longer possible to find topics on which a bipartisan consensus can form, except perhaps confronting China. Democrats fear that Trump’s return to the White House would deeply damage American democracy. Trump supporters fear Democrats are undermining American identity. Although there are more lawsuits against Trump, he has not lost Republican support and has eliminated all internal opposition. The ruling by a New York court on matters far less serious than the attempted so-called storming of the Capitol on January 6, 2021, is viewed by most of his supporters to be a political judgment made by a New York jury, meaning necessarily by Democrats and supporters.

What if he gets re-elected? This is exactly the kind of question that arises with respect to Donald Trump. At this point and according to the polls, if the election were held today, he would beat Joe Biden relatively easily. We remember that in 2016 and on the eve of the election, no one believed he would win, perhaps not even himself. Today, Donald Trump’s victory is no longer a far-fetched hypothesis. Despite the fact that the difference between the two candidates is only four years, Joe Biden looks significantly less physically strong and has troubling memory problems. He has difficulty getting around, has complicated speech, and said he recently saw François Mitterrand, who died in 1996, or confused the president of Egypt and Mexico. His supporters fear false steps or mistakes could benefit Donald Trump.

We must not forget that Joe Biden won the 2020 election by campaigning at his residence, as travel and mass gatherings were banned because of covid. How will he handle the pressure and campaign fatigue of being 4 years older? While Biden’s economic numbers are good, inflation means Americans don’t really realize it, and rising real estate prices also provide a negative outlook.

Additionally, his vice president, who doesn’t inspire confidence, Kamala Harris has failed to make her mark in the past four years. She certainly wasn’t helped by Joe Biden not nominating her, but the weight of a strong vice president, if the president seems weakened, is all the more crucial.

And then there’s Gaza. Many young Democrats will abstain, protesting what appears to them to be Joe Biden’s complicity with Benjamin Netanyahu and his war crimes. Sure, Donald Trump is even more pro-Israel than Joe Biden, but there is a sense of betrayal among Democratic youth and among the Arab American electorate that has sparked anger. They also won’t vote for Donald Trump, but they may abstain, and they will be sorely missed in some key states. We have to remember that Donald Trump defeated Hillary Clinton in 2016 because many Democrats, unhappy about not seeing Bernie Sanders as their representative, abstained, believing that Hillary Clinton didn’t really represent the left.

The election of Donald Trump will have very important consequences not only from a domestic political perspective, but also for the rest of the world. There is also no good scenario in the run-up to the election. If Donald Trump loses, we may fear that he will contest his defeat and that unrest will erupt as it did in early 2021. If he wins, his mandate will mark a return to a period of uncertainty domestically and internationally. The international climate will become even more degraded, especially given the tone Donald Trump is using towards his allies as well as his adversaries. If he is hysterical about the debate domestically, he does the same internationally. His brutality against multilateralism, in particular against the United Nations and more broadly against the entire international system, will do no good at a time when it is in danger and when the world needs it more than ever. The climate issue is one of such serious problems. However, Donald Trump is an outspoken climate skeptic, and the United States that has returned to a more virtuous policy from that perspective could again impede progress on the issue. The United States’ foreign relations, especially with countries in the “rest of the world,” are also expected to be severely damaged by Donald Trump’s return to power. Concerns about this prospect are growing, especially in Europe, where Joe Biden’s election was seen as a relief, especially at a time when Russia appears to be a growing and existential threat. So, there should be two positions on the European side. Some say that if Donald Trump is elected, we will have to live with it, especially since there is little chance that he will carry out his threats, particularly about withdrawing from NATO. Some are also willing to succumb to his blackmail over European defense spending and his obsession with trying to balance the United States’ trade balance. Others say we must have a Plan B so that we no longer depend on American support and, above all, so that our future no longer depends on the votes of 50,000 American citizens in a swing state. It therefore requires European strategic autonomy, which we have been talking about for years and which has never been implemented. Concerns are also growing among Asian allies, more so in Japan than in South Korea – even if it is highly threatened and less dependent (at least it seems so) on the United States, especially with its current parliamentary majority. While Tokyo appreciates Donald Trump’s more than firm tone toward China, it fears Washington will abandon it, leaving fewer guarantees than under a more multilateral US president. On Taiwan’s side, concern is also growing, although Taipei, like Tokyo, welcomes Donald Trump’s very anti-China character. It’s the same in Australia.

Still, if Joe Biden is an accessible ally who respects people and institutions, he is not as ideal a partner for European allies as Donald Trump is repulsive. On the economic front, the Biden administration has not given much consideration to the interests of its European allies. The Inflation Reduction Act, that massive subsidy program costing several hundred billion dollars, attracted many European companies to American soil and increased the risk of deindustrialization in Europe. When it comes to economic competition with Europe, the United States is no more virtuous than China. The Inflation Reduction Act, which aims to green the US economy, is good for the climate, not the European economy.

However, some are looking forward to Donald Trump’s return to the White House. Primarily Vladimir Putin. He has seen Donald Trump claiming to be able to resolve the conflict in Ukraine in 24 hours, while Republican representatives are blocking the shipment of weapons to Ukraine. Withholding US aid to Ukraine could lead to negotiations favorable to Russia, as one would think that Europe would not be able to offset US aid. That’s why Vladimir Putin says time is on his side. He knows that Ukraine is incapable of leading a counteroffensive that could make the difference between now and the US election.

Impatience is also felt on the part of Benjamin Netanyahu. Israel’s prime minister is experiencing an increasingly difficult relationship with Joe Biden, in particular because of the gradual withdrawal of opinions in the USA toward Israel. The return of Donald Trump, who enjoys the support of Christian Zionist Evangelicals, would allow Netanyahu to once again enjoy the full and friendly support of Washington. The same goes for Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman Al Saud. Even if Joe Biden, who wanted to make him a pariah, accepts his presence, Mohammed bin Salman has largely funded Donald Trump’s son-in-law’s investment fund and would have a wide-open desk in Washington again if Donald Trump gets elected.

There are no big changes for Iranians. The Trump and Biden administrations have had poor relations with Tehran. Trump serves more as a bogeyman for Iranian authorities seeking to untie the population. But in any case, the Iranian population is tired of the regime’s repression, and external scaremongering no longer mobilizes the population at home.

Quite surprisingly, Xi Jinping also welcomes the potential return of Donald Trump. While Donald Trump is much stronger anti-China, at least in form, this hostility toward China remains one of the rare points of agreement between Democrats and Republicans. But in reality, Beijing sees Donald Trump’s explosive and inconsistent side as an additional means of weakening the United States, which will consequently have a less coherent, especially foreign, policy. This will allow China to strengthen its discourse, especially with regard to the Global South. Despite Donald Trump’s slogan to “Make America Great Again,” China is convinced that this is more likely to weaken the USA, while Biden is more likely to strengthen the US position in the world without much pomp.

On the African continent, we again expect insults, negative attitudes, and nothing more from Donald Trump, although Africans didn’t get much from Joe Biden either.

Thus, a Donald Trump victory is an even more likely hypothesis than in 2016. Internationally, some leaders regret this prospect, while others await it with greed and impatience.