Macron and Decline of France

Shortly after his first election as president of the French Republic in 2017, the weekly Economist published on its cover a photomontage of Emmanuel Macron walking on water. Indeed, his election was a kind of miracle. For the first time during the Fifth Republic, a candidate who had not run in any elections, even local ones, and who did not have the support of a party represented in parliament, was granted access to the Elysee Palace. His dynamism, his youth, his European convictions, and his way of differentiating himself from Donald Trump without ruining relations with the United States, his desire to differentiate himself from his two predecessors whom he called neoconservatives, his determination to modernize France and boost its economy, the way he disrupted the French political system made him a central figure on the world stage. He epitomized Gaullo-Mitterrandism, enhanced by new technologies.

Seven years later, the situation is grimmer. Had he been re-elected in 2022, he would not have won a parliamentary majority, and his hasty decision to dissolve the National Assembly after the failure of his supporters in the European elections led to the collapse of his political party and a massive incursion by extremists straight into the Assembly. He waited 50 days before appointing a prime minister who lasted only three months in office. It is always difficult to shine on the international stage when you are experiencing great difficulties on the domestic political level. The success of the Olympics, which was a magical interlude, or the reopening of Notre Dame de Paris Cathedral have had no effect on his popularity rating in France, which is now very low. The French economy, like those of other European countries, is not very strong, and France faces a serious problem of public finance deficits, leading to a highly unpopular deterioration in public services. Former President Jacques Chirac used the phrase “troubles always fly in squadrons,” meaning that bad news tends to come in groups. That seems to be what is happening to Emmanuel Macron on a geopolitical level. He wanted to give France a leading role in Europe, restore dialog with Russia, establish himself in opposition to the United States, end the Franco-African conflict, and give France an important role in the Middle East. None of this has happened, but rather France’s position has deteriorated, partly because of geopolitical events that the French president cannot control, but also partly because of bad decisions.

The dynamism of European construction has historically been based on the strength of the Franco-German pairing. There is a separation of bodies between the two. Germany is tired of French officials’ constant promises to end its structural budget deficit. In foreign trade, which is surplus to Germany and deficit to France, the interests of German industry are at variance with those of French agriculture. Nuclear energy is an opportunity for Paris and a curse for Berlin.

Emmanuel Macron’s temptation to act alone has often irritated his European partners. Although he received Vladimir Putin with honors at Versailles and later at the private residence of Fort Bréganson, the war in Ukraine has prevented any close relationship between Paris and Moscow. However, since the emergence of the Fifth Republic, it has been a fundamental element of French foreign policy, designed to guarantee it room for maneuver in its relations with Washington. The fear caused by Russia’s actions in Europe has placed a taboo on European strategic autonomy projects, a key element of France’s geopolitical DNA. Emmanuel Macron has made an important strategic turn by choosing to emerge as Ukraine’s most ardent supporter, even though he has previously been its most reluctant defender. To the point that the possibility of sending Western troops was raised, which irritated Joe Biden and Olaf Scholz and frightened French voters. Joe Biden’s rise to power reconciled Paris and Washington on climate ambitions, but was accompanied by a stab in the back in the form of the AUKUS deal and the cancelation of the sale of French submarines to Australia. The Inflation Reduction Act, passed by Joe Biden to further green the American economy, has the disadvantage that it affects the competitiveness of European industry.

In the Middle East, France, being the West’s most advanced country in defense of Palestinian rights, which has earned it great popularity in the eyes of Arabs and generally in the South, has made little simplification in its positions, albeit long before Emmanuel Macron came to power. The October 7 attacks and Israel’s disproportionate response have put Emmanuel Macron in an untenable position, forcing him to first make statements of unconditional support for Israel, then to condemn the indiscriminate bombing of Gaza. As a result, on the domestic front, the French president has been booed at pro-Israel rallies and booed at pro-Palestinian demonstrations. France has said it supports the International Criminal Court and is also considering granting immunity to Benjamin Netanyahu if he comes to France. The least we can say is that the whole thing seriously lacks clarity and readability.

Following the Central African Republic, Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger, it was Chad, Senegal, and Ivory Coast that demanded the withdrawal of French troops from their territories. France, which until recently was considered Africa’s policeman, now has virtually no military presence there. And here, the priority, given to security, which was the hallmark of Jean-Yves Le Drian, who, while serving as foreign minister (2017-2022), continued to behave like a defense minister (2012-2017), led France to make the wrong choice of supporting corrupt regimes rejected by the population and then opposing the military regimes that overthrew them. “Double standards” were clearly demonstrated when France, which condemned military coups in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger, went along with the coup in Chad. It wasn’t rewarded for it. N’Djamena also demanded the withdrawal of French troops. Senegal’s new president, who represents the country’s hope, was elected in part on the basis of distancing himself from Paris. In the Maghreb, Emmanuel Macron chose Morocco to the detriment of Algeria, with which France still has a memory dispute. By indirectly recognizing the Moroccan character of the Western Sahara, Emmanuel Macron has restored trust with Rabat.

In Asia, France’s relations with China remain good, with Beijing appreciating Paris’s willingness to limit consideration of the Chinese threat to NATO structures. Macron has also managed to build a strong relationship with Narendra Modi’s India.

France could reclaim its important role as a bridge between the Western world and the global South at a time when the latter is gaining strength, and the gap between them is widening. However, Emmanuel Macron’s choice of Western unity prevents him from doing so. Thus, there has been a general weakening of France’s position at the international level.