Macron Trapped in His Gamble

France, whose institutions and voting methods seemed to guarantee governability, is in a deep political crisis full of uncertainty. On December 4, 2024, a vote of no confidence, introduced in the National Assembly by the leftist parties, gathered in the New Popular Front, was voted by these deputies and members of the National Rally (Rassemblement Nationale), although the content of the proposal was criticized not only by the government but also by the right wing. This coalition of opposing forces compelled Michel Barnier’s government to resign, abruptly aborting budget adoption. That hasn’t happened under the Fifth Republic since 1962. The shock is therefore particularly strong for the political system, while the economy is weakened by significant deficits, and the French are worried about their purchasing power and the deteriorating social situation.

The political crisis is the result of a series of irresponsible actions and attitudes by all political leaders. First, President Macron, who announced the dissolution of the National Assembly the same night his party lost the European elections. He thought he would get political clarification, so the French decided to compose an assembly divided into three blocs, and without an absolute majority: the bloc of the radical right-wing National Rally (RN), the bloc of the left-wing coalition, the New Popular Front (FNP), which came first and within which the radical left-wing movement France Unconquered (LFI) dominates despite the progress of the Socialists, finally the central bloc that came out weakened by the vote and divided between rather right-wing views and others rather to the left. Emmanuel Macron refused, as he usually had to do, to propose a left-wing prime ministerial candidate from the FNP because the LFI had taken an intransigent position, and preferred, after four months of deliberation, to turn to Michel Barnier, an old right-winger, leader of a party very poorly represented in the National Assembly.

His decision, like the decision to dissolve, was neither understood nor accepted by leftist and National Rally voters. But irresponsibility is inherent in all parties. The right and centrists, who were supposed to support the new government, raged and waged a permanent partisan war against the prime minister. France Unconquered, screaming about “denial of democracy” of the republic’s president, who has not chosen his candidate for the prime minister’s residence, Matignon Palace, is demanding his resignation. The Socialists, Greens, and Communists disagree, but are hesitant to break the FNP alliance for fear of sanctions in the next legislative elections from a majority of leftist voters committed to unity in their camp. The National Rally, which had implemented a strategy of relative normalization to gain access to the Elysee Palace, broke with him to satisfy its electorate, which overwhelmingly wanted the fall of the Barnier government. For several years, political leaders have explained loud and clear that the time has come for Parliament to play a more important role in order to balance to some extent the power that the Constitution and especially institutional practices confer on the President of the Republic.

They had the opportunity to initiate this rebalancing. But no! Not only has compromise not been part of the political culture in France since the creation of the Fifth Republic in 1958, but the main political figures have been reluctant to experiment with it because they are obsessed with the next election deadlines: the legislative elections, which may take place, will take place next year, the municipal elections in 2026, and finally, above all, the presidential elections of 2027, in which the current occupant of the Elysee Palace will not and cannot represent himself. This accumulation of irresponsibility only fuels the enormous political distrust that all opinion polls have been recording for decades and which got worse by the end of the year. According to the IPSOS poll, 86% of French people do not trust political parties, 78% do not trust MPs, and 74% do not trust the personality of the head of state and the National Assembly.

More than ever, the French believe that their leaders are far removed from their main concerns, from the concerns of their daily lives.

After the fall of the Barnier government, the Republican president worked to form “a government of general interest.” He found himself at the center of the game, eager to continue his presidential interpretation of institutions. However, very weakened and unpopular, he brought the parties together for consultations in a way unprecedented in the history of the Fifth Republic. Again, in an unprecedented way: on December 13, he was forced to appoint François Bayrou as prime minister, although it was not his first choice.

He leads a small centrist party, essential to the bloc supporting the head of state. The 73-year-old man is an experienced politician, is by no means Macron’s vassal, and is determined to enforce Article 20 of the Constitution: “The Prime Minister determines and implements the policy of the nation.” He who always wanted to “reconcile the French” will he be able to find compromises in parliament to last a little until the summer of 2025, when the president of the republic will again be able to dissolve the National Assembly, or even until the end of the legislature? How will the representatives of the right, centrist, and left government parties behave? It can be assumed that, having failed to change the political culture by agreeing to make fundamental compromises, they will decide to keep François Bayrou in power for two years to avoid early presidential elections for which they are not prepared. The risk in this case is that this government will not initiate any of the important reforms that France needs.