Africa Awaits Trump amid Fears and Suspicions

The return of Donald Trump to the White House, which some analysts have dubbed as Trump 2.0, will have major domestic and international ramifications, including for Africa. Trump was overheard in a media briefing as describing societies in Africa as “shithole countries,” which gives us insights into the attitude that he might project towards Africa. Paradoxically, in a speech to African presidents, Trump declared that some of them had made his friends very rich. This statement captured Trump’s posture towards Africa as an extraction zone that can be leveraged to maximize profit for American corporations and industry. Trump 2.0 represents the deepening of the fusion between American corporate interests and US foreign policy. This unholy convergence, which represents a Faustian pact between the economic, diplomatic, and military spheres, will fuel a much more overt predatory stance by Washington towards the rest of the world, including the African continent. Trump’s self-defined persona as the ultimate deal-maker and sales marketer will form his transactional approach towards Africa, which will be premised on maximizing opportunities to extract resources and off-setting any perceived competition from other countries, using all means at his disposal. The policy document known as Project 2025, which serves as the playbook for a radical restructuring of domestic American society, gives a few pointers as to a Trump 2.0 administration approach to the world. The document points towards a US foreign policy, premised on a precipitous withdrawal from multilateral processes and institutions, unless they can be leveraged directly to advance American power. For Africa, this could translate into a significant reduction in US bilateral programs and projects, such as President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR), which was intended to provide health-related interventions in Africa. Along similar lines, the US African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) initiative, which was adopted in May 2000, with the objective of providing eligible African countries with duty-free access to the US market for about 1,800 goods and products, could be adversely affected. Paradoxically, this could turn out to be a blessing in disguise, as African leaders, governments, and people would then be compelled to rely more on their own resources, which is the pathway to increased continental autonomy and Pan-African agency on the global stage. At the opposite side of this spectrum, Trump’s allegiance to American corporate interests will also lead to increased contestation with perceived competitors for Africa’s natural resources, including China, Russia, and the European countries.

For example, US conglomerate Chevron Texaco has invested an estimated $13 billion in the Trans-Saharan pipeline to transfer natural gas from the Niger Delta valley through Nigeria, Niger, and Algeria into European homes, to offset the reduction in supply from Russia, following the Russo-Ukrainian war that began in 2022. There are direct flights from Angola’s capital city Luanda to Houston, Texas, illustrating the continuing prevalence of American interests in Africa’s second largest oil reserves after Nigeria. In a speech to the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) during his first term, 2016-2020, Trump lamented that America was not winning as much as it used to and that he was determined to change this reality. This could lead towards a much more aggressive use of the more than 29 US military bases, located in Africa, including Camp Lemonnier in Djibouti, Manda Bay in Kenya, also in Chad and Senegal, as well as the largest US drone base on the continent situated in Agadez, Niger. The US Africa Command, also known as US AFRICOM, was unable to establish a formal presence on the African continent due to the reluctance of African leaders to openly be perceived as accommodating Washington’s military presence, but it continues to be headquartered in Stuttgart, Germany. Furthermore, US military power continues to be surreptitiously deployed through its military bases and operations, as well as its CIA stations, located in 53 African countries. Trump 2.0 will continue to leverage its close ties with key allies on the continent including Egypt, Ethiopia, and Kenya. Former President Uhuru Kenyatta of Kenya paid a visit to the White House during Trump 1.0. More recently, incumbent President William Ruto of Kenya’s close ties with the Biden administration and Kenya’s designation as a “non-NATO ally” will continue to be leveraged by Washington mandarins as nominal base operations, notably to contain the threat of violent extremists in the Horn of Africa and the Red Sea region, which generates and processes almost 12% of global trade.

Africa will need Pan-African solidarity in order to withstand the onslaught that is about to be unleashed upon the continent by the Trump 2.0 administration. The predatory use of US kinetic power and the deployment of clandestine operations of American intelligence operatives could lead to further destabilization across Africa’s regions. Consequently, the African Union needs to accelerate its efforts to recalibrate and revive its peace and security architecture to ensure the capacity to address the continent’s crises. In addition, African governments and societies need to intensify efforts to promote and strengthen the African Continental Free Trade Area (ACFTA) to ensure that its resources are leveraged to improve the lives of their people, despite the coming storm embodied by Trump 2.0.