Putin’s Reshuffle, Zelensky’s Purge

There is a paradoxical aspect to this war between Russia and Ukraine concerning certain analogies in the management of defense resources.

Vladimir Putin’s decision to reshuffle personnel at the dawn of his fifth presidential term was widely discussed in the West. Taking advantage of the resignation of the government (constitutionally obligatory for every presidential inauguration), the head of the Kremlin carried out a deep reorganization in the leadership of the Defense Ministry and the military-industrial apparatus. Sergei Shoigu was resigned with some respect and appointed Secretary of the Security Council. At the same time, his entire team in the ministry was eliminated, caught up in corruption investigations. Putin’s message is clear: this is not about changing military or political strategy. But in a center like the Ministry of Defense, responsible for waging war and therefore flooded with money (110 billion euros for 2024, corresponding to 6.7% of Russian GDP, a share that rises to 8% if other security agencies are also taken into account), there should be no gaps or shadows. This is exactly why Shoigu was eventually replaced by Andrei Belousov, an economist with a reputation for incorruptibility and loyalty to the tsar.

This is what is happening in Russia. What about Ukraine? The most sensational event was the dismissal of General Valery Zaluzhny, who had been considered a hero of the Ukrainian resistance for two years and was suddenly, in early February, removed from the post of commander-in-chief of the armed forces without any special ceremonies. Disagreements on the course of war? Absolutely not. Zaluzhny called for a new law on mobilization of Ukrainians of draft age, and after its release, the law was discussed and approved. Zaluzhny asked to recognize the failure of the offensive and the stalemate at the front, as well as to adjust the lines to strengthen them, to give the soldiers a rest and to introduce new ones. Exactly what his successor General Syrsky later said and did. So, in fact, Zaluzhny (appointed ambassador to London, suspended for months, and finally accredited to the United Kingdom) was actually suspended because Zelensky saw him as a potential political rival. Better to have a loyalist like Syrsky, known as the “butcher,” who is little liked by the troops because he tends to confound them with attacks perhaps more motivated by political ambition than military strategy.

A very useful loyalist at the current stage when, since the mandate of the Parliament expired in October 2023 and that of the President on May 20, and since holding elections is impossible, Ukraine is experiencing a very specific situation of disengagement from an institutional point of view.

But even before the “Zaluzhny case,” Ukraine’s Defense Ministry, the backbone of the country’s resistance, was unstoppably at the epicenter of the storm. During the five years of his presidential mandate, Vladimir Zelensky replaced five defense ministers: Stepan Poltorak (removed in August 2019), Andriy Zagorodnyuk (March 2020), Andriy Taran (November 2021), Oleksiy Reznikov (September 2023), ending with the minister who currently holds the position, Rustem Umdjerov. When Reznikov, who was also considered a Zelensky supporter and was never (at least officially) accused of illegal behavior, was removed, four of his deputy ministers were also swept away (most famously Anna Malyar, Vladimir Gavrilov, Rostislav Zamlinsky, and Denis Sharapov), as well as Konstantin Vashchenko, the state secretary of defense.

This was not the first time: in January 2023, Reznikov survived the first sensational scandal, when it turned out that the Defense Ministry was buying materials for the troops at grossly inflated prices, and the difference was pocketed by the usual suspects. In that case, five deputy ministers were also dismissed. Not to mention the dozens of officials of more or less high rank who have been kicked out since the beginning of the Russian invasion because they were deemed dishonest.

Too much money is flowing into the Defense Ministry, and many are tempted. Ukraine spends 58% of its remaining GDP supporting the war and can count on billions in financial aid coming from the USA and the European Union.

Military supplies from abroad are also a great opportunity for illicit profits for criminals. The Pentagon has appointed a special inspector, represented by lawyer Robert Storch, to verify that ammunition and weapons sent to support the Ukrainian resistance actually reached their destination. A situation arose from Storch’s reports that was not unexpected, but troubling nonetheless. Avalanches of ammunition and weapons disappear, ending up on the black market. In January, Storch confirmed that about 60% of the most advanced weapons sent by the USA, worth several billion dollars, had disappeared without a trace. That’s 2500 Stingers, 10,000 Javelins, 23,000 night-vision devices, and at least 750 drones – equipment that is easy to transport and sell.