Trump’s secret? Americans’ fears

The US presidential election ended with a surprise: a popular vote victory for Donald Trump, who is preparing to return to the White House for the second time. The media is portraying a convincing victory, but in reality, the margin was small: when the count is complete, Trump’s lead will be less than 2 percent. And in the key states of Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania, Kamala Harris would need just about 250,000 more votes to win among the electorate.

Overall, Trump has slightly increased voters, but Kamala Harris has lost many of them compared to Joe Biden 4 years ago. The result is a clear Republican victory that leaves Democrats wondering why the country – or at least enough voters – have forgiven Trump for all his faults, starting with his attempt to cancel the 2020 election.

The structural elements of this election campaign have been in Trump’s favor. The vast majority of Americans believe the country is headed in the wrong direction, and the Republican candidate’s message was simple: Biden and Harris put us in this situation, and I will fix it. In fact, he won the question that defines society’s economic problems, posed by Ronald Reagan in 1980: are you better off today than you were four years ago?

Americans’ negative reaction was largely driven by inflation, but amplified by two other important contextual factors: immigration and the two wars troubling the West – in Ukraine and the Middle East. The rise in prices is a starting point as it has affected two fundamental sectors in particular: food and housing. Despite wage growth in recent years that has collectively kept pace with inflation, the growth in these sectors has been decidedly large, leaving middle- and lower-class Americans feeling a significant loss of purchasing power. It was a dynamic about which the Biden administration could do little because of competency issues, but ultimately the responsibility always lies with those who govern.

Kamala Harris promised to take measures to counter inflation in some specific sectors, but did not provide key information on the source of inflation and the government’s actions to combat it. She could have explained that trade was halted during the pandemic and that rising interest rates are responsible for the rise in mortgages. Not to mention the role of large funds, such as the Blackstone Group, in buying large numbers of homes and then renting them out at ever higher prices. And she had to present Biden’s new industrial policy as a way to guarantee increased domestic production so as not to remain dependent on foreign countries. However, her economic message remained unclear. She has made several direct offers to help citizens on a financial level, but has avoided taking a clear stand against big financial interests, in part for fear of being seen as too left-wing. The result was an unconvincing mix that was insufficient to overcome the difficulties felt by families.

In addition, Donald Trump pushed on the issue of immigration. He promised to deport some 11 million people. It’s an unrealistic plan, but it reminded Americans of the outgoing administration’s inability to manage migration flows. In the absence of a compromise in Congress, Biden actually waited until the last year of his presidency to take action to limit arrivals.

Wars overseas also had a significant impact. Given the difference of about 30,000 votes in Wisconsin and 80,000 votes in Michigan, it’s quite possible that the Gaza issue caused Harris to lose those states. The candidate did not want to distance herself from the outgoing president’s position for fear of angering supporters of the Israeli right. These are groups like AIPAC (American Israel Public Affairs Committee), which have an important influence not only in the corridors of Washington, but also in the centrist wing of the party. Harris paid for her unwillingness to be criticized on this issue by losing the votes of many citizens of Middle Eastern descent in those states.

Finally, Trump warned of the danger of a new world war, emphasizing his intention to immediately end the war in Ukraine. There is still a kind of silence in the mainstream media on the issue, but everything indicates that a significant portion of the American population recognizes that Trump did not start any new wars during his first term; for this reason, the message in favor of diplomacy has gained some weight.

The overall effect of inflation, immigration, and war has been to convince most (or almost) Americans that things were actually better before, when Trump was president. Today’s sense of insecurity and uncertainty caused these voters to look beyond Trump’s character weaknesses and even his lack of respect for institutions. Moreover, the Democrats face a very serious image problem: thanks to decades of promoting globalization policies, both economic and cultural, the party has lost credibility among the working class. It’s not easy to free oneself from past mistakes, despite the White House’s efforts to help the most disadvantaged parts of the country.

Finally, one should not underestimate the impact of advertising campaigns to define Kamala Harris as a left-wing radical, leader of a party concerned with issues such as gender transition for youth and immigrants, as well as other “woke” positions against discrimination in various areas that seem excessive in a society with moderate values. Industrial policy, union support, and specific proposals to improve welfare have failed to break through the wall of distrust created by progressive cultural demands that are considered far removed from the needs of the average American.