Why Trump Might Win Again

An article by: Andrew Spannaus

In a few days, America will elect its new president. A decision that will have a profound impact on international relations, from ongoing wars to economic problems. Polls show Harris and Trump very close or even equal

With the 2024 presidential election just days away, the outcome of the contest between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris is still uncertain. Despite the Republican candidate’s many flaws, from his offensive language to refusing to accept the results of the election four years ago, Trump remains firmly in the game. Harris brought a burst of energy to the campaign on the Democratic side, but several structural factors remain difficult for her to overcome.

After the assault on the Capitol on January 6, 2021, for a brief time it seemed that Trump could become a pariah in American politics. He had crossed the most sacred line for a democracy, seeking to hinder the peaceful transition of power. Yet the resistance by Republicans in Washington was short-lived. They blocked his impeachment and offered support for former president against the wave of court cases against him.

For his part, Trump decided that he had to return to the White House, both to avoid the legal consequences of his actions and to continue his personal revolution against the country’s establishment. And he did it his own way: without listening to the advice of those who told him to moderate his tone, but relying on the fact that millions of Americans are quite happy to see a candidate who does not respect convention. In reality, Trump’s style of constant exaggeration and name-calling is risky: polls say it turns off moderates, who want to hear more substance than insults. That is why his favorability rating remains in negative territory. In other situations, this could be fatal, as Harris has been ahead of him on this measure. The advantage is not large, but historically, favorability has been an important factor in judging the candidate’s prospects for the White House.

However, there are a number of structural elements that have allowed Trump to get very close to Harris, with a gap of around one percent in the popular vote, and essentially a tie in the key states that will determine the winner through the Electoral College system. The three most important of these factors are the economy, immigration, and wars.

On the first point, the situation is paradoxical. Joe Biden has been, without a shadow of a doubt, a highly consequential president in economic terms. He continued on the path started by Trump to counter globalization by improving on the more primitive measures taken by his predecessor. Trump’s tariffs and trade wars broke the ice regarding policies based mainly on the free market, but they were largely ineffective bringing manufacturing activities back to the United States. The Biden administration, on the other hand, launched a new era of industrial policy, maintaining some elements of protectionism and adding strong public investment. Trillions of dollars have gone towards the construction of numerous production facilities, direct aid for families, and the strengthening of the welfare system. It is a direction that, at least in terms of the renewed emphasis on productive activities, is unlikely to change in the coming years, given the desire to win the competition with China.

The most evident economic problem, however, has been inflation. Yet the high level of government spending contributed only in part to the price increases – less than 30 percent, according to studies – but the growth in the cost of groceries and housing has put the American working class in a bad mood. Thus, the Republicans can point back to a calmer time, before Biden, when things seemed to be doing better. Of course, the pandemic shook things up in the meantime, but responsibility always falls on the party in power.

On immigration, the orientation of the electorate has also changed. A few years ago, Trump’s extreme attitude might have seemed a disadvantage, but today, after the great wave of arrivals at the Southern border, it helps him in no small measure. Even residents of large cities ruled by Democrats feel the weight of the government’s inability to manage the phenomenon. This adds another piece to the feeling of uncertainty.

The icing on the cake of instability, so to speak, is the growth of international conflicts. Trump can rightly claim that he did not start any new wars when he was president. On the other hand, his strong support for Benjamin Netanyahu and withdrawal from the Iran nuclear agreement contributed considerably to today’s situation in the Middle East. But the Democratic administration has failed to differentiate itself on this point. Rather, Biden and Harris have lost a lot of support on the left, among progressives and especially Arab Americans, for failing to put stronger pressure on Israel. This could be a decisive factor in the election, for example, if Harris were to lose the key state of Michigan because of the anger among the large community of Middle Eastern origin.

Finally, there is Trump’s accusation that the Democrats are leading us toward World War III. He promises to end the war in Ukraine immediately through diplomacy. Here, too, Harris finds herself stuck between two conflicting demands. She does not want to distance herself from the position of the current administration, which has continued to provide aid to Zelensky, but she knows that even in Washington, behind the scenes, there is increasing talk of a negotiated solution.

The overall effect of these factors is that the American electorate perceives a situation of international chaos, adding to domestic difficulties after a period of great uncertainty. This allows Donald Trump to overcome the difficulties related to his past mistakes and his character, and to compete with Kamala Harris down to the last vote.

American political scientist, Catholic University of Milan. Author of the book "Why Trump is Winning" (2016).

Andrew Spannaus