Opinions #2/25

Canada, which holds the G7 presidency in 2025, is left without a leader, a prime minister, and a government. Descendant son Justin Trudeau, heir to the prime minister who remained in office for 16 years, resigned after two five-year terms in power because of several minor scandals related to the management of personal affairs, but above all because of the drop in popularity he has experienced over the past two years. With the G7 temporarily decapitated, the rest of the Greats of the World Club (the definition seems a bit outdated, but it is actually turning 50) is experiencing one of the worst moments in its history. Germany is entering a dangerous election campaign after the failure of the coalition of Social Democrats, Greens, and Liberals. Chancellor Scholz has very little chance of remaining in office after the vote, but he is hoping for only a moderately negative SPD result to once again form a governing alliance with the Christian Democrats. The “grand coalition” reissue. The other cornerstone of European construction, France, is experiencing an even more serious political crisis. Given the rash decisions that have characterized Emmanuel Macron’s second term, what is at stake is not only the ability to form stable governments in a parliament now divided into three blocs (sovereign right, centrist, left), but also the actual stability of the presidential system in the country. Fifth Republic format. In both cases, in Paris and Berlin, the shadow of more or less far right-wing forces looms.
There are more than enough factors to fuel all sorts of fears about the fate of the European Union. But there is more. Donald Trump’s ally and inspiration, the ubiquitous Elon Musk, has in recent weeks launched an extremely vicious campaign against the future American president’s European allies. The targets of the attacks are mainly social democratic leaders such as Scholz and British Prime Minister Starmer. However, some see his attacks, carried out via X social media platform (formerly Twitter), as a political project. “He wants to lead a new reactionary international”, Macron said, speaking to the French diplomatic corps. The fact that this initiative is led by the richest man in the world, owner of Tesla, owner of the most impressive satellite fleet, and Trump’s right-hand man has been a source of sudden concern on this side of the Atlantic. So much so that even the Italian government, close to Trump and friends with Musk through Prime Minister Meloni’s confidant, is somewhat embarrassed to present an agreement to supply its satellite services to the Italian state. If it is true that Henry Kissinger could mock the fickle and shifting leadership he had to deal with in Europe (“what is Europe’s phone number?”), then Trump will certainly have an easy time at the beginning of his new presidential term dealing with a very fragile European Union and many weak national governments. At one time his arrogant behavior at G7 summits was impressive. This year may be worse for his allies, from whom fidelity rather than loyalty will be demanded. The number of analyses of the origin of this new imbalance, which dates back to the post-war years, is legitimately multiplying. Many focus on the impact of the covid pandemic on the economy. Some emphasize the change in the rules of the free-market game that has occurred in the West because of the massive government intervention in favor of American companies that Biden is pushing for. Others focus on the limits to growth that Europe has self-imposed by linking itself to the Green Deal based on an ecological transition that is as virtuous as it is radical. Finally, there are many estimates linking the decline in the competitiveness of the European economy to the causes of rising energy prices. More than quadrupled with the rejection of Russian gas due to sanctions and sabotage of the Nord Stream underwater pipes. In truth, few people paid attention to the unsightlier aspect. The change of suppliers from Moscow to (mostly) Washington turned out to be a bloodbath for European countries, especially Germany, forcing the entire continent to dance on the edge between stagnation and recession. Meanwhile, in the rest of the world, whether there were wars or not, GDP grew on average.
However, as Andrew Spannaus explains, even for Trump, economic decisions will not be an easy walk. The situation is complicated, as we have seen in recent days, by the different views that exist within the ranks of his congressmen. Between proponents of radical social spending cuts and proponents of tax cuts. A problem that, on a different scale but in the shorter term, will have to be faced by the new very weak French government led by the centrist François Bayrou. In his analysis, Pascal Boniface sees France’s current weakness in its internal torment as well as in its surprisingly rapid weight loss internationally. Starting with the former African “backyard,” where, one by one, the governments of countries that were still yesterday deferential to Paris imposed the dismantling of its military bases: garrisons that, during the long post-colonial period, guaranteed a taste of grandeur for a resized France of the twenty-first century.