Opinions #24/24

Europe archives its elections with few certainties and many unknowns. Among the undeniable facts is the general tendency of the electorate to shift the political axis to the right in the 27 member states. As a result of the growing dissatisfaction with the economic condition coupled with the constant worry about the effects of immigration. And not only that. An “impossible” war, suddenly proposed as probable, brought a new destabilizing element to a continent that considered itself the Garden of Peace. In some cases, these are confirmations with a slight increase, such as in Italy and Spain. In other countries, significant progress is being made to substantially alter the balance of power between the political components in government and those in opposition. This is the sensational case of Germany and France. The two countries that have so far played a decisive role in building and implementing the European project were shocked again in the elections of June 8 and 9. Macron is making a desperate attempt to hold political elections, postponing them three years ahead of schedule to try to limit the expansion of Marine Le Pen’s right-wing sovereignty. And Chancellor Scholz is counting on his own fear and that of his Greens and liberal allies to delay early voting as much as possible in Germany, where important states will go to the polls in autumn anyway. Different strategies by two different suddenly war-mongering leaders who have been turned into “lame ducks” by their electorate. In both Paris and Berlin, the aim now is to “wrap” an unprecedented failure at the national level in the packaging of a new majority to lead Europe. Let’s start with the European Commission. Thus, after von der Leyen’s candidacy was deemed unviable for various reasons, attempts are now being made to keep the “Ursula Formula” alive. And if the People’s Party, the Social Democrats, and the Liberals are not enough to get her re-elected, there is an intention to find the missing votes wherever they are, among the Greens, the anti-European Right, or independents who have no political family in Brussels. So far, everything has been done to keep the EU’s compass oriented on the same course, starting with the militarist turn taken with increasing unprincipledness, despite the doubts and fears expressed in European opinion polls.

Stefano Pilotto’s analysis focuses on this complex post-vote, embracing risks and opportunities, recalling the idea of a nation in Europe composed of homelands, which is no longer De Gaulle’s idea. While Robert H. Wade devotes his historical reflections to the wartime backdrop, in which Europe finds itself crushed. This brings us back to the missed opportunities in recent years to avoid a Russian-Ukrainian conflict and to the West’s responsibility for not recognizing Moscow’s right to have the same doctrine of its own security as the United States has had as a basis for its national interests since the days of President James Monroe, two centuries ago.