Opinions #39/24

A tough American week for Ukrainian president. Anticipating the title, he was finally able to present his plan to end the war with Russia. His main interlocutors were the occupants – current, former, and future – of the White House. And that was already a problem. Zelensky has concomitantly lost his most reliable ally in the fight against Moscow, Biden, who is not eligible for re-election but had to turn to him first. Reasons for geopolitical etiquette and beyond. Under the outgoing president, Zelensky tried to guarantee continuity if Kamala Harris win. But the Democratic candidate, for her part, is seeking to distance herself as much as possible from the foreign policy choices of Biden who, at this crucial stage of the campaign, finds himself on the verge of being held accountable for failing to deal with two bloody conflicts. The Middle East apocalypse, as some call it, is a source of great embarrassment for Harris, but also the Ukrainian front, in the face of a majority of Americans who want fewer financial resources spent abroad, is treacherous for Kiev’s ally. Finally, the sharpest interlocutor: Donald Trump. The former president has long supported a solution tailored to Moscow’s needs, and in the past month he has brought to his side a Democrat such as Robert F. Kennedy Jr. who made Russia’s principles and coercion of the United States and NATO a substantial part of his campaign as an independent candidate. In addition, Trump has a personal issue pending with Zelenski. As soon as elected in 2019, he asked him information about the “family business” that the Bidens – father and son – started in Kiev in the spring of 2014, just a month after regime change following the Euromaidan uprising. Information that Zelensky was too slow in providing to Trump’s emissaries, who were counting on it to discredit Biden before the 2020 election. It took years, but a US Congressional investigative commission and the Los Angeles court have accumulated enough evidence to induce Hunter Biden, the businessman son of the current president, to plead guilty to all charges. He faces 17 years in prison, but by preventing the trial from continuing, he prevented his father from an embarrassing parade in front of the judges. This was the ace that Trump knew he could play against Biden in the November 5 challenge. But Biden arrived so weak in the final rush that the party forced him to withdraw from the race, in favor of Kamala Harris. Who confirms herself as a fearsome challenger to Trump. These days the polls have her slightly ahead or tied. But Andrew Spannaus, who in 2016 was among the very few convinced of Trump’s victory over a very strong Hillary Clinton (and who published a book called “Why Trump Wins” a few months before the vote), explains in his analysis how fragile Harris’s advantage is. While waiting to see who will lead the Western superpower, the world is dealing with one of the last strategic initiatives of the Biden era. The announcement of a new nuclear doctrine, or of further American rearmament, is being analyzed with concern by the countries of the Global South. The motivation given by Washington – Chinese competition also in the military nuclear field – seems specious to Ambassador Alberto Bradanini. In his Opinion he explains why.