Opinions #45/24

No ifs or buts. Bigger than expected. And with no complaints. Donald Trump won, marking a decisive step in the political history of the United States. Not only because, for the first time since Grover Cleveland in the late 19th century, a former president who was defeated in the previous election is returning to the White House. But because the November 5, 2024 vote will be a watershed moment. There will be “before” and “after Trump 2.” Certainly in domestic affairs, and perhaps internationally as well. Unlike 2016, when with his arrogant unpredictability he reached the pinnacle of power after defeating super-favorite Hillary Clinton, this time Donald will return to the Oval Office with a clear doctrine for the exercise of power. His Agenda 47 envisions a radical transformation of the cornerstones of the American system. That hard core, which all the occupants of the White House had to deal with. It is also called the “deep state.” But if Barack Obama was the first to denounce the existence of a “rulebook” that all presidents must adhere to, limiting himself to slowing its application during his administration (avoiding Assad’s bombing of Syria, for example), Trump has threatened to tear apart those who have tried to delegitimize it. The list is long, and it won’t make it through the usual, brutal but accepted system of extraction. “Change” he promised voters includes the regulation of state officials. Appointed for membership and loyalty and no longer elected according to track record. The principle behind Agenda 47, inspired by the ultra-conservative Heritage Foundation think tank, seeks to expand presidential power in all sectors, from justice to health care, from education to the military. In the front row, according to Trump, are federal agencies, starting with intelligence agencies. The expansion of White House powers, which has drawn fierce criticism in recent months, as there are concerns it could represent an authoritarian turn so far alien to American tradition. Amazingly, an election campaign aimed at turning the opponent into an “enemy,” fueled by insults and slander, made paradoxical and vulgar by Trump’s excesses, eventually produced a sensational result in opinion polls. Trump, who has called the FBI and judges, Biden and Democrats, the mainstream press, women and immigrants the enemies of an America that wants to be “great again” (MAGA), has managed to mobilize not only his traditionally conservative, masculine, chauvinistic, essentially racist electorate, but also members of a new class of formerly poor people: newly legalized immigrants. And more women than expected. “This is America, baby!” you might say, to paraphrase Humphrey Bogart. A restless, divided, and resentful superpower within itself, with a tremendous capacity for conditioning on a global level. The breathlessness that was destined to accompany Trump 2’s first steps in all offices can be attributed to promises or threats made during the campaign. The promise to end the Biden-era wars is sounding ambiguous in some capitals. Kiev fears America’s withdrawal. In Moscow, we are seeing specific, generally hostile actions promoted by Trump during his first term. In Tel Aviv, Netanyahu can count on the longtime support of Trump, who, however, being a pragmatic businessman by training and not an intuitive “Irish Zionist” like Biden, will not want to see more massacres of civilians in Gaza or Lebanon. After all, he promised it to Michigan’s Arab Muslims, who believed him, allowing him to tear down the blue wall Harris was counting on to win. Beijing and Tehran are waiting to see if Trump wants to be what he has declared himself to be: a president who stops wars, not starts them. In continuation of what has been done before. “Promise made, promise kept,” he chanted as soon as he was re-elected. The campaign strongly reaffirmed the commitment he made when he invited Democrat Robert F. Kennedy Jr. to support him. Kennedy, meanwhile, has been named co-director of the transition team that will act on Trump’s behalf until the January 20 inauguration. Europe as a whole is in an awkward position. As Biden’s aide, it is forced to reorganize its relationship with a president who is the exact opposite of his predecessor. The first distortions are already happening. However, ways to smooth over the former tycoon’s stated intentions regarding duties and military spending have yet to be found. In some European governments inspired by nationalism, Trump’s return could mean many things. Let’s start with a different attitude towards the European Union. The soil is fertile, as evidenced by the various elections held in recent months. And there is no shortage of signs of what a revitalization of the national interest might mean. Massimo Nava highlights them in his analysis of Poland-Ukraine relations. While Tim Murithi focuses on a different region of the world, less remote for European socio-economic balance than is usually thought. A large chunk of Africa that is organizing to free itself from the grip of former colonial powers: Sahel.