USA: Insecurity that Favors Trump

With six months to go until the November presidential election, Donald Trump maintains a slight lead over Joe Biden in the polls. There are important factors that could still harm both candidates, from the ongoing criminal trial against the former president in New York to the outgoing president’s age and frail image. However, the sense of uncertainty due to factors such as immigration, the cost of living, and social unrest – the latter linked to crime but also to university protests over the war in the Middle East – will be crucial. The current administration has direct responsibility for some of these issues, but not for others. In any case, the social climate could have a significant impact on the election campaign, providing support for Trump’s criticism of the status quo.

The dominant theme for the Republican Party during this period – with only limited differences between Trump supporters and traditionalists – is immigration. They seize every opportunity to blame the president for the record number of arrivals at the country’s southern border. With an average of 2 million illegal immigrants per year and a judicial system overwhelmed with requests for asylum, there is a clear perception of emergency. Even Democratic mayors of large cities like New York, Chicago, and Los Angeles criticize the federal government and call for help to address the large flow of desperate people into their areas.

It is undeniable that Biden’s arrival at the White House marked a new phase for those aspiring to enter the United States, a hope for greater openness after the hard line followed by his predecessor. Furthermore, the Democratic administration has ended the “Remain in Mexico” policy, the controversial program that kept migrants outside the U.S. while they waited for their asylum applications to be processed.

After the burst in arrivals, Biden and the Democrats in Congress rushed to find a solution, seeking a legislative compromise on the issue. The proposal was to increase funding to secure the border and strengthen the judicial system, but Trump himself encouraged his party not to collaborate with the president. The solution to the problem lies in strengthening and streamlining procedures, as well as granting work permits to many illegal immigrants, given the pressing needs in certain sectors of the economy. However, during the hot months of the election campaign, it is certain that immigration will be used primarily as a political weapon rather than a subject for honest discussion.

The other major theme that favors Trump’s candidacy is the economy. In 1980, just a few days before the vote, Ronald Reagan asked the electorate: “Are you better off than you were four years ago?” This key moment contributed to his victory over Jimmy Carter, and today candidate Trump continues to repeat the same question.

Objectively speaking, as the media often remind us, the answer should be yes. In the spring of 2020, there was a disaster, with economic collapse and social divisions over the response to Covid. In fact, Trump often shifts the question to “five years ago,” to recall a calmer period. In reality, he could also boast about the government’s response to the pandemic, including Operation Warp Speed, which developed vaccines ahead of schedule, and government actions that helped save families from poverty and businesses from bankruptcy. He doesn’t, though, because this type of government intervention doesn’t align with the broad anti-lockdown and anti-vax sentiment, on the one hand, and the historical Republican free-market line, on the other.

On the role of government in the economy, Trump brought about significant changes, and Biden has continued in the same vein, with additional protectionist and industrial policy measures. Despite the consolidation of this shift, openly boasting of the successful turn away from neoliberalism still seems too much for Trump if he wants to speak not only to the Republican base but also to the establishment.

In any event, the reference to the pre-pandemic period is working. Polls show that a majority of Americans remember the Trump presidency as a better time in economic terms. The main culprit is inflation, with the sharp price increases that began in 2021. In this case, the direct responsibility of the party in power is limited: the disruptions to global trade, with the halt in production and transportation, were the main factor.

Ironically, the effectiveness of government policies to support incomes contributed to the phenomenon, since having money doesn’t mean you can buy goods if they’re not produced in your own country and aren’t arriving from the other side of the world. The resulting increase in the cost of commodities and finished products hit the population hard. And despite wages keeping pace with inflation at an aggregate level, the surge in prices in areas such as food and housing is causing significant difficulties for certain groups of people.

Finally, there is social insecurity. During the pandemic, the number of violent crimes, from murder to assault to car theft, increased. The rise was limited in time, and in absolute terms, the levels were significantly lower than those of the 1970s and 1980s, but direction matters. A perception took hold of a country out of control, with no respect for the law. The Black Lives Matter protests contributed to this, fueling the fears of the “silent majority” sensitive to calls for law and order.

In 2024, a similar situation is emerging. The unrest at prestigious universities, where young people are railing against Israel’s war in Gaza, is being used politically for two purposes: to strengthen support for Tel Aviv by labeling any criticism as anti-Semitic and to paint a picture of disorder caused by “woke” and privileged youth who threaten social peace. This is a familiar script, seen, for example, in 1968 when the radicalization of protests against racism and the Vietnam War provoked a conservative reaction among voters.

Politicians are experts at fueling polarization. In the current context, where citizens are well aware of the difficulties of the recent period, from inflation to immigration to crime, Donald Trump has an easy time blaming Joe Biden. This gives him the opportunity to exploit people’s worries about the direction of the country, hoping that voters will remember his presidency as a better time compared to the uncertainty the country is experiencing today.