The UN climate conference UNFCCC 28 will begin on November 30 in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, and will face the difficult task of preserving the Paris Agreement. The debate will focus on intensifying international efforts to curb global warming. The UN demands from the most developed countries “facts, concrete commitments, and no empty promises.”
Meanwhile, judging by a new report called “Emissions Gap Report 2023,” published by UNEP (United Nations Environment Programme) experts, this will not be an easy task. Despite the commitments made by economically developed countries to stop climate change, average global temperatures at the end of the 21st century will rise by an average of 2.5 to 2.9 degrees Celsius, or “well above the 1.5 degree safety threshold specified by science” and enshrined in the 2015 Paris Agreement.
Humanity is rapidly approaching the point of no return, after which it will have to face the most catastrophic consequences of global warming. Many industrialized countries, including Great Britain, are one by one abandoning their climate commitments. But even “full implementation of national contributions under the Paris Agreement will not allow the world to limit temperature rise to 2.9 degrees compared to pre-industrial levels this century,” UN experts write. Full implementation of national commitments, supported by significant external financial assistance, will limit temperature rise to 2.5 degrees, which is one degree above the “safety threshold.”
According to UNEP, in the “most optimistic” scenario, where “all commitments to achieve net-zero greenhouse gas emissions are met, temperature rise could be limited to 2 degrees.” But for UN experts this is just a good omen: “Net-zero emissions commitments,” they emphasized, “are currently not considered credible, and no G20 country is cutting emissions at a pace consistent with these targets.” The verdict is clear: there is only a 14% chance of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees.
UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres accuses governments of industrialized countries: “This all amounts to a failure of leadership, a betrayal of our most vulnerable peoples, and a huge missed opportunity,” Guterres said.
“There is not a single person or economy that is not affected by climate change,” said UNEP Executive Director Inger Andersen during the report presentation, according to which “we must primarily stop the rise in greenhouse gas emissions and global temperatures.” And as the Italian economic newspaper Il Sole 24 Ore notes, “2023 is poised to go down in history as the hottest year on record. A record that risks being short-lived.”