Far from Gaza, but Where?

The war will be long, Israeli generals say, because “not even half of the goals” have been achieved. But ultimately, they try to reassure, there will be a stage of “transition and stabilization,” the goals of which are not very clear: among them, there may be a large-scale ethnic cleansing of Gaza, in addition to the vaunted “eradication” of Hamas. A plan that former Mossad chief Efraim Halevy called “reckless” and could further radicalize the Gaza Strip and West Bank, creating scenarios even worse than the current ones.

While the northern Gaza Strip is envisioned in Israeli documents as a kind of “security zone” with no entrances or exits, the “liberation” of the southern Gaza Strip – at least from militants and their families – depends on behind-the-scenes negotiations with Egypt. Cairo still officially and firmly rejects the settlement of some Gazans in Sinai, given, among other things, that Hamas is a movement associated with the Muslim Brotherhood, sworn enemies of General President El-Sisi. But 1.5 million refugees from the strip have already poured into the southern Gaza Strip, and the situation will soon become unmanageable. To the point where no one really needs Gaza: Abu Mazen’s PNA, which the Americans would like to involve, is discredited even in the West Bank, and Arab countries are hesitant to send military forces that might clash with the Palestinians.

But after Egypt’s presidential elections this week, things may change. Egypt has already received commitments from international organizations (IMF, World Bank, EU, Afreximbank) for loans in the amount of $26 billion, which over time could serve as an incentive for the resettlement of some Palestinians to Sinai. With an external debt of $165 billion, Egypt could also consider Israel’s offer to pay off its $20 billion debt. This is being talked about in the Arab press, while the governments of the West and the Middle East are remaining silent for now, because when the time comes, they will say that they did not know.

In recent weeks, Egypt, which ruled the Gaza Strip before the 1967 war, has been inundated with financial aid (or at least promises of aid). The Monetary Fund announced an immediate increase in loans to Cairo from $3 billion to $5 billion. The official goal is to support the price of the Egyptian pound, which is weak and inflated in foreign exchange markets. The immediate goal is to support the country saddled with debt that requires $29 billion in payments this year alone. But the director of the fund, Kristalina Georgieva, also clarified that this money “is intended to help Egypt cope with the consequences of the war in the Gaza Strip.”

In Egypt and abroad, this funding is believed to be related to the Gaza war and the future rebuilding of the sector. The African Export-Import Bank is finalizing an $11 billion loan to support the creation of a new special trade zone and inter-African trade. Two weeks ago, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen met with President El-Sisi in Cairo, presenting in Brussels a study on the allocation of 9.8 billion euros, apparently intended to address the consequences of the war. The plan aims to “help Egypt take on its debt burden and prevent illegal migration across the Mediterranean to Europe.” In other words, we are preparing for the possible and probable creation of refugee collection centers.

In a statement to Bloomberg, Gerdjili Ormousi, head of strategic marketing at Societé Generale, who has always been active in Egypt, made it very clear that the significance of this influx of funding to Cairo “is justified by the country’s role in supporting the coming influx of Palestinian refugees fleeing the bombing in the Gaza Strip.”

And there’s something else. European Union funds are motivated by Egypt’s future role in the region. At the last G20 meeting, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu and Indian President Modi jointly announced a project for a new sea and land route that would connect India with the Arabian Peninsula, reach Israeli ports on the Mediterranean Sea, and finally land on the Italian peninsula. An alternative route to the Chinese Silk Road and the Suez Canal itself. Behind the river of blood flowing in the Gaza Strip, there are new global balances.