USA 2024: Democrats panic over RFK Jr.

In the US presidential race, Joe Biden and his allies are increasingly fearful of Robert F. Kennedy Jr. The independent candidate – one of three who can subtract votes from Democrats and Republicans – is considered the most serious threat to the two-party system since Ross Perot in the early 1990s, when George H. W. Bush was defeated by Bill Clinton. RFK Jr. has no real chance of victory, but his anti-establishment and anti-war message could attract a significant number of disillusioned people, changing the dynamics of the race for the White House.

In the Democratic world, fears have gone even further, leading to a real mobilization to disrupt the Kennedy campaign. Various groups linked to the party have launched operations not only to dissuade voters from supporting RFK Jr., but also to prevent him from running in as many states as possible. Lawsuits are underway to challenge his presence on the ballot, using the rules of the American system that makes life difficult for minor candidates. This year’s battle promises to be fierce: Kennedy is drawing about 10 percent in national polls, and Democrats are worried that his impact could sway the outcome in November, as already happened in 2000 with Al Gore and in 2016 with Hillary Clinton, whose prospects were damaged by outsiders with far fewer followers.

Being an independent candidate in the United States is far from easy. The two major parties, Democratic and Republican, have a national structure and are already recognized as such by the various states. This allows them to automatically place their candidates on the ballot based on popular support received in the past.

For others, the path is much more difficult. In California, for example, there are two options: you can create your own party and collect 75,000 signatures from voters who support it; or you can do without a party, but then you need to collect 219,000 signatures within a specific period of time – three and a half months.

Other states have similar requirements, often with a lower number of signatures, but different types of restrictions: signatures must be evenly distributed throughout the state or they must be filed a year in advance. The goal, which is not really hidden, is to exclude minor parties and candidates.

RFK Jr.’s campaign staff is well versed in the intricacies of the system, and his supporters are working to ensure his appearance on the ballot in several states. To date he has been certified in Utah, and his campaign has announced that sufficient signatures have been collected for New Hampshire, Nevada, Hawaii, North Carolina, Idaho, and Nebraska.

Kennedy relies on the support of a Super PAC, an outside committee that can raise large sums of money, but cannot formally coordinate with a candidate. The group American Values 2024 has worked tirelessly to ensure Kennedy’s presence on the ballot while criticizing the Democratic Party for its efforts to limit Democratic participation.

Success is not guaranteed. There are several groups actively opposing Kennedy and other minor candidates, such as Jill Stein (Green Party) and activist professor Cornell West. One of these is American Bridge, which has hired prominent lawyers to find legal loopholes and challenge RFK Jr.’s qualifications in many states. Third Way, a group very close to the White House that brings together centrists and moderates who oppose progressive policies, has also launched a campaign to block independent candidates. And another Super PAC, Citizens to Save our Republic, has been formed to raise funds to combat the presence of outsiders.

This philosophy is explained by Richard Gephardt, former Democratic congressman and founder of Citizens to Save our Republic: “Sometimes in life, you don’t get two good choices. You don’t even get one good choice… but don’t make a choice to put somebody back in office who tried to overthrow the federal government.”

The Democratic National Committee has also created an internal structure tasked with tracking and responding to minor candidates. The goal is to coordinate efforts among the various groups, and ads are already being run seeking to link RFK Jr. to Trump, claiming that support for Kennedy will lead to the return of the former president to the White House.

The concerns of Democratic leaders are understandable in part, given that polls show Kennedy could take a significant number of votes away from Joe Biden. Donald Trump is unlikely to exceed 47-48 percent of the national popular vote, but having alternative candidates would provide an outlet for undecided voters unhappy with the choice between two older and not very popular candidates. In this case, Trump’s limited but solid base may be enough to win a plurality of the vote.

However, as RFK Jr. supporters point out, doing everything possible to block minor candidates is decidedly contrary to the spirit of democracy. Citizens will notice this, and many will wonder why the Democratic Party doesn’t focus on the substance of the political issues, i.e., the reasons to vote for their candidate.

There has been considerable discussion of Kennedy in the press since the March 26 announcement of vice-presidential candidate Nicole Shanahan, a figure little known to the general public. The choice appears to be driven primarily by financial considerations, given the ability of Shanahan – a lawyer, a top executive in the technology sector, and the ex-wife of a Google co-founder – to provide considerable campaign funds. Early polls indicate no change in the level of support for RFK Jr., but there is also no evidence of abandoning the superficial attitude toward his candidacy. Indeed, the mainstream media seems intent on repeating the mistakes made in 2016 with Donald Trump. Then (as partly still happens today) coverage focused mostly on the candidate’s most extreme positions and provocations, leaving aside the very effective arguments he used to win support among the working class: the deindustrialization of the country due to globalization and the failed policy of military interventions abroad.

When the press speaks of Robert Kennedy, it seems obligatory to brand him as a conspiracy theorist who opposes vaccines, opposes the pharmaceutical industry, and advances extravagant theories on the origin of covid. But the idea that appeals to many voters is left out: the goal to “end endless wars,” referring to his uncle John F. Kennedy, who wanted to stop the national security institutions from providing “a constant pipeline of war.” Kennedy calls for a “new peace movement,” a different role for the United States in the world, and wants to break the “corrupt merger” of state and corporate power.

This message may resonate with public opinion, especially at a time when President Biden faces a revolt among Democratic voters over his political and material support for Israel in its war in Gaza. In addition, there is growing opposition to aid for Ukraine, not to mention the bipartisan belief that we are heading toward war with China.

Democrats have a right to fear RFK Jr., but in a democracy it is necessary to respond to substantive issues rather than resort to dirty tricks to exclude candidates who don’t follow the dominant line of politics in Washington.