Lula 2.0, Ambitions And Problems

After the dramatic presidency of Jair Bolsonaro, Brazil, led by Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, returned to the international stage with the goal of becoming a regional power. A protagonist of South American economic and political integration and a qualified representative of the Global South, which is gaining importance in the face of dynamics that are redefining the weight of major geopolitical blocs. A Brazil, which defends multilateralism, which is guided by the principles of non-intervention, self-determination, international cooperation, and peaceful resolution of conflicts. At least that is the intention of the Lula government, reinforced by the rotating presidency of the G20, which will be Brazil’s turn in 2024.

To that end, the opening speech of the 78th session of the UN General Assembly in recent weeks was one of the most carefully thought out among all delivered by Lula and his advisers. The Brazilian president, who returned to the Planalto Palace after difficult and controversial years, also on a personal level, wants to be seen as representing an alternative path in the context of global comparisons, in which everyone risks losing something important. Lula intends to present Brazil as a non-aligned yet significant voice in the new economic and military challenges that characterize the current “international order.”

From this perspective, Lula’s main goal is to combat inequality both between nations and between social groups. It’s a problem he handles well and in which he had relative success during his first years as president of Brazil, from 2003 to 2010.

Lula is convinced that all other problems of global importance, from the environment to armed conflicts, from migration to the problems of new work context, can be solved more easily, if the scandalous inequalities and asymmetries of today’s world are adequately addressed.

Lula hopes to gain credibility both politically and morally as a representative of the excluded, the leader of a country that seeks democratic and socially just solutions. This position, and not only in the political sense, is well illustrated by an excerpt from his speech at the UN: “Inequality should cause outrage. Outrage against hunger, poverty, war, disrespect for people. Only if we are driven by the power of outrage can we act with the will and determination to overcome inequality and effectively transform the world around us.”

However, Lula has many obstacles to overcome to reach this position on the international stage.

The first thing that Brazilian commentators constantly emphasize is the need for him and his Workers’ Party (Partido dos Trabalhadores, PT) to update their worldview and their proposals, still firmly tied to the 20th century banners. For example, Lula finds it difficult to criticize and oppose leftist authoritarian governments in Latin America such as Nicaragua, Venezuela, and Cuba. However, in doing so, he undermines his image as a democratic leader, especially in the continental context.

Lula believes that it is necessary to resist US hegemony in order to maintain a position of neutrality and that in the event of a war in Ukraine this means refusing to condemn the Russian invasion. This attitude means consent to an invasion of the country by a neighboring power: Lula hoped to gain credibility as a mediator in the conflict, but – for the West – he turned out to be too tied to Russia’s position.

When Lula became president in 2003, Latin America was experiencing a “pink wave”: left-wing governments had come to power in a number of countries. Today, even with the return to power of some leftist parties, growing economic difficulties and criticism of previous leftist mandates make it difficult to predict the same dynamics.

Gabriel Borich, President of Chile and representative of a new generation of leftists in Latin America, says he admires Lula and recognizes his leadership, but says the left must be more self-critical, presenting more concrete proposals with clear references to the leaders of Lula’s generation.

Alberto Fernandez, the Argentine president who is currently particularly close to Lula, has little chance of being confirmed in the next elections. New times have come that require updated leadership.

The situation at the national level is equally complex, and perhaps even more so, where Lula faces a right-wing Congress that demands a high price for its support. In less than a year in government, trying to balance campaign promises with concessions to the right, he has already disappointed environmentalists, feminists, and anti-racists.

Lula is not the first international leader to face serious domestic opposition, but the greater the opposition, the less room there is for foreign policy.

If all this were not enough, Lula faces the problem of a country that for many years has not developed at the pace needed to meet the growing needs of its population.

When Lula left power in 2010, Brazil’s gross domestic product (GDP) was 3.1% of global GDP. In 2022, it fell to 2.5%. For comparison, in 2010, India’s GDP was 2.5% of global GDP, by 2022 it has grown to 3.2% of global GDP.

The development model of Brazil that in the past determined PT’s economic policies and was based on strategic decisions of the government with the support of the main economic groups has exhausted itself without producing good results. If Lula’s leadership is to be recognized on a global scale, Brazil should start by presenting its own alternative model of economic and social development.