Ukraine: Macron’s Dangerous Games

President Macron hit the headlines in late February 2023 after a rally in support of Ukraine, at which 21 countries were represented and which discussed the possible sending of Western soldiers to Ukrainian soil. This declaration sparked numerous debates in Europe and in France. In France, most media and strategy experts were happy to see President Macron toughen his tone towards Vladimir Putin, whereas until now they criticized him for being too conciliatory towards him. But while the hawks are in the majority in the French strategic community, they are not in the country: 74% of the French are against sending troops to Ukraine. The same goes for European leaders who have distanced themselves from or criticized Emmanuel Macron’s proposals. The German Chancellor was most explicit in his opposition.

But it should be kept in mind that Joe Biden has always ruled out, including in the pre-war period, deploying US troops.

During the Cold War, NATO and Warsaw Pact countries carefully avoided any direct military confrontation. Never before has a Soviet soldier shot an American soldier and vice versa. Taking such a risk today may seem paradoxical to say the least. French Armed Forces Minister Sebastien Lecornu ruled out sending combat troops on the ground, thus correcting (or clarifying) the president’s comments.

Admittedly, things are looking pretty bad for Kiev, which is experiencing serious difficulties at the military level. While some hoped for the collapse of the Russian army at the end of 2022, in 2023 we instead witnessed the failure of the Ukrainian counteroffensive, with the Ukrainian army losing ground once again. Vladimir Zelensky complains about the insufficient amount of ammunition he receives. In addition, the demographic ratio does not work in his favor, as Ukraine’s population is four times smaller than Russia’s. Western countries support Zelensky’s conditions for ending the war, namely to return all lost territories not only in 2022, but also Crimea conquered in 2014, to try Vladimir Putin in the International Criminal Court, and to demand that Russia make reparations for war damage. To say that these goals are difficult to achieve is to say nothing.

Isn’t that why President Macron mentioned sending Western troops that could tip the scales in Ukraine’s favor? But such a decision could lead to a direct confrontation with Russia, a nuclear power. How then to explain the antic by Emmanuel Macron, who later accused of cowardice those who did not want to be firm enough with Vladimir Putin?

The French president gave a new impetus to French politics after his speech in Bratislava in May 2023. However, he has long been an advocate of dialogue with Moscow and has been criticized by Vladimir Zelensky for his flabby support. But now he seems to want to play the role of a leader in supporting Kiev. Before the European elections, there may be domestic political goals to oppose Rassemblement Nationale and Unconquered France, which favor a cease-fire. Ukrainians consider this prospect unacceptable, as it would be tantamount to recognizing Moscow’s territorial conquests. Western countries are in a sense trapped, and they have put themselves in a trap. By fully adhering to Zelensky’s military objectives and repeatedly stating that their strategic reputation is at stake, they find themselves up against the wall if Ukraine failures.

Emmanuel Macron has undoubtedly seen a window of opportunity. The United States is locked in a domestic debate in Congress, and the prospect of Donald Trump returning to the White House makes its Western solidarity even more uncertain. Great Britain is wallowed in domestic political difficulties, and Germany’s ruling coalition is not in a leadership position. In addition, Emmanuel Macron has undoubtedly told himself that he has a trump card to exercise European leadership. To regain the initiative and no longer take a defensive posture, France and Germany are heavily criticized in eastern Europe for their relative closeness to Russia. The problem is that by positioning itself in this way, he abandons France’s traditional and advantageous position of serving as a bridge between the West and the global South at a time when the gap between the two is widening. In the tradition of De Gaulle and Mitterrand, France is certainly a Western country, but it cannot simply be characterized that way. It also stands out for its active policy towards the countries of the South, especially as the latter are gaining ground on the international scene. By positioning itself sharply in support of Ukraine, France is distancing itself from most countries in the Global South, for which ending this war is essential. This was also mentioned by Pope Francis when he asked Zelensky to have the courage to raise the white flag. But for Macron and Zelensky, this would mean cowardly concession.

The problem is that no one can guarantee that continuing the war that will entail human, economic, and social costs will lead to the desired outcome. According to Pope Francis and many Southern leaders, we will unnecessarily prolong the war without changing the territorial situation.

The problem is that Western countries have never wanted to condition their aid on gaining some influence for military purposes. There’s a difference between possible and desirable. Some would like Ukraine to regain all lost territories. It’s not certain that this is possible. It’s doubtful that it’s possible at all. And there’s a risk that forcing the decision in this direction will lead to an uncontrollable spiral.