USA 2024: Kennedy Factor

Kennedy. The name evokes history, fame, and noble political goals. John F. Kennedy remains a legend, a figure of hope but also tragedy who, despite less than three full years in the White House, is identified with a turning point in American history. Robert F. Kennedy wanted to carry on the torch, but he suffered the same fate as his brother, contributing to a widespread sense of lost opportunity for great change. The youngest member of the generation, Ted, did not enter the pantheon in the same way as his brothers, but he was a senator for decades, considered a liberal icon who long contributed to shaping the national debate despite his personal scandals.

Now there is a new Kennedy, ready to shake up American public life: Robert F. Kennedy Jr. He comes from the same family that for many years represented the compass of Democratic politics, but he has spent his career away from Washington, fighting battles for policies that are viewed as marginal and even controversial, while never gaining the trust of the establishment.

Today, RFK Jr. is a wild card that risks upsetting the 2024 presidential campaign, the most significant independent campaign in decades, the impact of which could reshape not only the public debate but also the outcome of the vote. Every election features candidates from minor parties, such as the Greens and Libertarians, who run protest campaigns, sometimes subtracting important percentage points from the main candidates.

Every now and then, there are those who manage to go further, like Ross Perot in 1992, who tapped into widespread worries about the outsourcing of jobs. Kennedy, on the other hand, evokes a revered tradition of American politics and has struck a chord in a population skeptical of the operation of government institutions. His name, despite doubts about some of his positions, gives more weight to his criticism.

RFK Jr. began as a candidate in the Democratic primaries. Early results were encouraging for him, as he topped 20% in polls against President Joe Biden. However, it soon became apparent that Kennedy’s appeal extended beyond the party base and was even stronger among conservative voters. The candidate’s goal was to force Biden to discuss the global role of the United States, calling for an end to what Kennedy sees as a militarized approach to international problems.

He has said, for example, that Russia was acting in good faith and that it was the US’s fault if the war in Ukraine was not stopped. And that American aggression, military and economic, is the source of conflict with the BRICS countries in general.

The president and the Democratic Party leadership had no intention to agree to such a debate, fearing damage and internal divisions that could lead to a loss of votes in next year’s elections. In addition, some right-wing politicians and media outlets have gone to great lengths to direct attention to RFK Jr., hoping to use his success to damage Biden.

The wall that Kennedy encountered among Democrats pushed him to leave the party primaries and run as an independent candidate. It is also likely that the accusation of harming Biden played a role in his decision: this way, he can remain in the race until the end, and avoid the risk of subtracting votes only from the incumbent president. Actually, Republican voters view Kennedy very favorably. As a result, polls (at least for now) indicate that RFK Jr. could take more votes from Trump than from Biden. Moreover, RFK Jr. manages to make participation in elections attractive for those citizens who in recent years have sat out the elections, and are not wedded to the Democratic or Republican Party.

The fact of attracting new voters touches on a fundamental question of politics: how to talk to the disillusioned, to those who vote without conviction, and primarily to those who have not voted for a long time. Voter turnout in the United States has increased in recent years, peaking at over 66% in the 2020 presidential election. But all polls tell us that enthusiasm is down sharply this time, as about two-thirds of Americans would prefer to have a different choice; a situation in which sparking enthusiasm among voters will be both difficult, and essential.

In this context, it is not surprising that an outsider is able to gain significant attention, even if the mainstream media considers him toxic. Of course, some of RFK Jr.’s positions are questionable, such as his deep skepticism about vaccines and his tendency to cite Nazism when he criticizes economic power or the situation of civil rights in the United States.

However, there are some areas where RFK Jr. can break through in the current political debate. Let’s start with the first point on his website: “end the forever wars.” In his speeches, Kennedy recalls that while president, his uncle, John F. Kennedy, sought to break the power of the military-industrial complex and “splinter the CIA into a thousand pieces,” after becoming convinced that the purpose of the intelligence apparatus was to “create a constant pipeline of new wars.”

RFK Jr. extends his criticism of the system to social and economic issues as well: he condemns threats to freedom of expression and claims that there is a corrupt alliance between large corporations and government agencies. He is not afraid of accusations of conspiracy-mongering, explaining that there is no need for secret plans when “there are orthodoxies that become institutionalized, that have their own gravity that pull people in.”

In a society where trust in political institutions is at historic lows (a widespread trend in the Western world), it is not hard to see why a significant portion of the population might be interested in such messages. With war once again dominating the news due to the conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, RFK Jr.’s call for a “new peace movement” to reject violence abroad and at home may tell us something important about American citizens’ views at this stage.

In fact, we are living in a period of realignment, when “populist” criticism is growing on both the right and the left, compressing the political center. There are clear indications of this process, even if they don’t necessarily paint a coherent picture. Donald Trump promises to stop the war in Ukraine, in line with his success in preventing new conflicts during his time in the White House. Criticism is growing among the public and also in government institutions of the Biden administration’s support for the Israeli government.

There are disagreements and contradictions within and between political parties on these issues. Centrist forces can console themselves by saying that the criticism still comes from a minority, which, among other things, is divided and easily stigmatized with accusations of supporting Vladimir Putin or Hamas. But the candidacy of an independent figure, buttressed by the recognition and authority of his name, could mean – once again – that the establishment will be forced to face public opinion even on uncomfortable and difficult topics.

While it will be easy for the media to criticize him for extreme or conspiratorial positions, the reality is that RFK Jr.’s anti-establishment message will have a major impact on the 2024 presidential election, as it gives voice to some important doubts that often remain beneath the surface of American politics.