Moscow's intentions regarding Odessa meet the logic of many schools. All great powers, from the British to the Japanese empires, have always wanted to control the sea exits of potential enemies

One of the significant issues in the struggle between Ukraine and Russia is the possession of the Black Sea coast, the key to which is Odessa. This issue is not new: during the Crimean War, from 1853 to 1856, Odessa, which was then Russian, got bombarded by British, Ottoman, and French naval forces. To understand the implications, it is useful to look at some historical precedents.

Indeed, what will become of Ukraine deprived of a sea line? It would be similar to what Mongolia became, that is, the continental remnant of the Xiongnu Empire, which once had access to the Yellow Sea. That’s why Western forces in Ukraine are focused on weakening the Russian navy. Essentially, they should prevent the blockade of Odessa.

For comparison, let us recall that the Treaty of Karlowitz (1699) gave the Ottoman Empire access to the Adriatic by purchasing the Neum region from the Republic of Ragusa. The Austrian Empire, unable to redeem the enclave, stationed one warship in front of this port until 1878.

Naturally, annexing a rich maritime facade brings happiness to continental empires. Didn’t Bonaparte benefit greatly from the annexation of the seaboard of the Netherlands in 1810? Economic complementarity with England was immediately undermined. As for the Pacific War (1879-1884), it was remarkably close to the Russian-Ukrainian configuration. Acting in favor of British maritime interests, Chile deprived Bolivia of its only access to the sea.

In fact, many empires lost access to the sea. After the siege of Port Arthur (1904-1905), Russia ceded its maritime enclave to Japan. In 1918, the Austrian Empire experienced a naval collapse, losing the Adriatic coast. In 1956, the French and British had to say farewell to Suez. Between 1961 and 1991, Eritrea’s war of independence returned Ethiopia to continental status.

Let us remember, finally, Germany, humiliated in 1918, which in 1939 launched an offensive on the Danzig corridor to achieve a connection with East Prussia. In that particular case, the existence of a German enclave worked like a magnet. Will it be different with Transnistria?

Teacher at the University of Poitiers and Rennes Business School. Specialist in Russia, China, and Iran.

Thomas Flichy de La Neuville