Ukrainian Illusions

Generally speaking, the media in previous months were essentially in the service of the positions defended by Zelensky: the war would have to continue until Ukraine regained all the territories that belonged to it in 2014 (including Crimea).

Russia was undoubtedly the aggressor in its attempts to seize the capital and establish a regime favorable to it.

We seldom remember that the United States systematically pushed NATO’s borders towards Russia’s borders in accordance with the advice of Z. Brzezinski in his book “The Grand Chessboard” (1997), with my introduction in French, that was published the same year.

This book became the most brilliant work published after the Cold War. He pointed to three conditions, under which the United States can continue to maintain superiority: help slow the rise of China, ensure that Europe remains divided, and, above all, push the former USSR towards Russia’s borders, including Ukraine. In 2008, George W. Bush said that Georgia and Ukraine should become part of NATO, to which Russia could not agree.

According to the Russian side, American dynamics are aimed at weakening Russia, hence the unsuccessful initiative of Vladimir Putin in February 2022, which allowed Washington, after a humiliating retreat from Afghanistan, to restore its image as a bastion of democracy.

The United States, having suffered a series of failures (Vietnam, Iraq, Afghanistan), presented itself as champions of freedom, encouraged Europe to join the fight for Ukrainian independence, and restored the role of NATO that will include new members (Sweden, Finland).

Russia appeared isolated, the victim of sanctions, and militarily backward, thanks to the massive support provided by the United States and its Western allies. Ukrainian President Zelensky, with his dynamism, and the Ukrainian population, with its heroism, received significant support, and it seemed that everything was tilted against Russia. Victory seemed to be smiling at Ukraine and those who supported it.

An offensive was announced, which should have resulted in Russians thrown back abroad…

After a few months, the process stalled, the Russians were not harmed by sanctions but circumvented them, Putin reorganized his military resources, was not destabilized by the head of the Wagner Group in incitement, and benefited from the support of China and a significant number of countries in the South that did not condemn Russia. More importantly, Russian defenses appeared solid, and United States aid – although significant – was increasingly criticized by Republicans and some Democrats, while fatigue was evident among divided European allies.

Within Ukraine, plagued by corruption, serious divisions have emerged between the political leadership and the military. The possibility of a peaceful solution was discussed. In short: with elections next year in the USA, time was working against Ukraine and its maximalist position. Everything seems to indicate that negotiations will have to end the conflict after long delays.

Ukraine with 80% of its territory will be independent, and its independence will be guaranteed by NATO. Russia, which failed in 2022, will nevertheless be able to withstand the shock almost single-handedly against NATO (albeit with the support from China) and retain Crimea, control Donbass and adjacent territories. There will be no winner to crush the loser. The price Ukraine will pay will be significant…