Africa, All Is Lost For The West?

The accelerating decline of the French presence in West Africa (Mali, Burkina Faso, Nigeria, Gabon…) is especially surprising because it is happening belatedly.

In essence, neocolonial Françafrique lasted for about sixty years. A long time. Great Britain, the other major colonial power on the African continent, was able to maintain ties to the British Commonwealth and quietly withdraw. France is firmly entrenched in the former colonial possessions in the financial, economic, and military dimensions.

Two dates mark the beginning of the current turning point, which has not yet ended: the financial and economic crisis in the USA related to real estate, which completed the period of hegemony of the United States that was left without rivals after the collapse of the USSR. Shortly after that, in 2010, the message thundered: China has taken second place in the world economy.

On a more local level, there is the very unsuccessful military operation in Libya in 2011 carried out by Sarkozy and the British under US cover. The official goal was to protect the population of Benghazi threatened by Colonel Gaddafi. But the real purpose of this action was to get rid of a figure who particularly worried President Sarkozy. However, the Libyan regime controlled political opponents, Islamists, and Tuaregs, who infiltrated Mali after the fall of the regime, forcing France, led by François Hollande, to intervene (2013 Operation Serval).

However, soon the military operation codenamed Barkhane reached a dead end, despite optimistic statements by the French military command. In the meantime, the world was becoming multipolar, while the United States faced political setbacks (Iraq, Afghanistan), and French troops floundered in Africa. The presence of France was becoming unpopular. The coups d’état seemed to create a domino effect. At the same time, there was an increase in the military-political and economic presence: Russian, Turkish, and more secretive Chinese. The Chinese are building infrastructure in exchange for political influence and create few jobs.

To avoid getting bogged down, President Macron was preparing a careful exit. In parallel, massively militant Islamism waged its struggle and received subsidies from the Gulf countries. This pressure is expected to continue towards Chad and the non-Muslim south, which could ultimately lead to a clash with the evangelists, who have worked extensively in Africa over the past two decades.

French troops left Niger, where their persistence led to a standoff. At the same time, the CFA franc still remains the currency of fourteen West African countries.

As for the regimes that emerged as a result of coups d’état, they appear to be just as corrupt as the ones they replaced. Amid the rejection of the French presence, there is a redistribution of resources according to political criteria, which will not result in economic growth.

Recent events surrounding the French presence have drawn attention to parts of West Africa, but we must highlight the growing instability in Africa’s most populous nation, Nigeria, with a population approaching 300 million. The government no longer controls the country divided between rival groupings, be they Islamist or, more often, criminal. Finally, to complete the picture, we must recall the successes of the Islamists in Somalia, the unrest in the Horn of Africa and Sudan, and the advance of the Islamists in Mozambique.

As for the Republic of Congo, it remained an arena of conflict for several decades, particularly due to the policies of Rwanda, complicated by the presence of mercenaries from various European countries.

From the moment of gaining independence until today, Africa’s population has doubled, which explains much of the tension. The population of Africa (including Egypt and the Maghreb countries) at the beginning of the last century was about 140 million people, and in just over 15 years from now, by 2050, it will exceed 2 billion people, which will be more than a quarter of humanity.

Cities are overcrowded with unemployed workers who have no prospects other than escape. The middle class remains embryonic, and education and training are insufficient. Africa’s short-term fate is violence fueled by religious antagonism, amid the specter of famine and epidemics.