Opinions #46/23

After the first weeks of disorientation in the face of a new Israeli-Palestinian war, we are witnessing a diplomatic frenzy that, starting in Washington, crosses the Middle East, reaches Europe, looks at China, and worries about Russia. The activism organized by the White House has many causes.

The main one is usually that the United States participates in all crisis points, both spontaneous and more or less unintentionally created. The first superpower is the only one that can force others to relent, reduce the intensity of the fire, achieve a truce, perhaps a ceasefire, perhaps a semblance of peace. This is a reading of a twentieth century manual based on a post-bipolar world view.

But there are other reasons for this difficult and turbulent season of diplomacy. And they are mostly all in the USA. Where politics, society, academia, and Hollywood are split in the face of changes taking place in that crucial sector of the global balance, which the Middle East actually is.

By adding fuel to the fire in the form of moving the American embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem or attempting to strike the blow of the century with the Abraham Accords, Trump’s actions have created a dynamic that is too contrasting to be successful. Stifling the Palestinian issue by focusing on a wide range of alliances between Israel and the surrounding Arab world, including Saudi Arabia, further isolating Iran, has proven to be a very risky path. His successor in the White House wanted him to run, despite some obvious contraindications. And today, Biden must run and get his Secretary of State to run to try to contain the damage.

When an unprecedented military attack began in the Gaza Strip, with unprecedented stakes for the Palestinian population and their armed militias, it immediately became clear that this time it would not be like before, when the Israeli government responded with massive bombing to sporadic missile attacks. Operations, such as Summer Rains, Hot Winter, Pillar of Cloud, Cast Lead, or Protective Edge, military campaigns with a foregone conclusion, in which the Tzahal, the Israeli army, tested the power of new weapons with very little risk. The total number of deaths resulting from these campaigns is significant: 118 deaths among Israelis and 3,853 among Palestinians, which is a ratio of 1 to 32.

The attacks carried out by Hamas militants over the past twenty years have been treasonous for Israel, but useless, if not counterproductive, at the international political level. The deliberately spectacular scale of the October 7 attacks, which entailed unspeakable cruelty on the part of those who carried them out, instead became the impetus for a different way of thinking about the Palestinian problem. Forcibly kept under the carpet of history, it has reappeared in all its cruel manifestations. This is where American activism had to come into play.

The news, however, is that Washington alone is unable to impose moderation even on its ally Netanyahu. The Israeli prime minister responded with a shrug not only to Blinken, but also to Biden and the Pentagon. Now, this no longer just an Israeli problem, has become burdensome for the United States as well. As a result, the Saudis and Iranians are overcoming old conflicts and working together to support the Palestinians. The same with Egyptians and Jordanians, Syrians and Qataris, Emirates and Yemenis. Sunni or Shia governments that have to deal with Muslim masses, Arab and others, have taken to the streets to protest the humanitarian catastrophe that Israel’s military response has resulted in. The echoes of the protests make even the most historically turbulent European squares vibrate, starting with French and British ones.

A large fire has broken out, and this time the volcano on which it rests is showing signs of activity. Draining the fuse is becoming a priority in the election season, when Biden faces challenges not only from his Republican rival but also from within his own party. Hence the need dictated by the White House to achieve a ceasefire as soon as possible, albeit gradually. Israel’s goals are no longer aligned with those of the United States, and ongoing negotiations are the best way to begin the election campaign, while trying not to worsen the situation with China and Russia.

Moreover, already six months ago, American analysts and advisers argued that the time for unconditional assistance to an ally had expired, that the United States as a global power would have to return to protecting broader interests. “It is unwise [to continue], because [his]… goals are coming into conflict with other Western interests,” wrote Richard Haass and Charles Kupchan in Foreign Affairs magazine. They meant Zelensky, but today this may also be true of Netanyahu.